Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:24:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8E 0x8e91…ac8e sports 128 markets active 1h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$95 (-8%) realized −$95 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%76W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$88
other 8% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 27 +3.6% -6.3% 56% 56% +0.2%
all 127 -7.6% -16.4% 60% 60% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 60% -16.5%
10% -24.4% 51% -24.5%
15% -31.7% 38% -31.8%
20% -38.4% 28% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$9 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$95
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses76 / 51
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)127 / 128
History coverage149d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Dplus KIA Challengers 52¢ 50¢ $17 $16 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 51 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup May 13 $17 +$14 +83%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-01? May 08 $5 +$2 +41%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-01? May 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 29 $5 +$8 +150%
Will Levante UD win on 2026-04-23? Apr 28 $5 +$8 +163%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-04-23? Apr 28 $5 +$6 +117%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-04-23? Apr 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-22? Apr 23 $5 +$1 +27%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-04-21? Apr 23 $5 +$5 +92%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-04-21? Apr 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-04-21? Apr 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-04-20? Apr 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-04-17? Apr 20 $5 +$3 +56%
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-04-17? Apr 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 17 $5 +$3 +61%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $5 +$4 +85%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-04-13? Apr 14 $5 +$7 +144%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-13? Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Thunder vs. Clippers Apr 13 $24 +$11 +46%
Mavericks vs. Bucks Apr 08 $10 +$9 +89%
Penguins vs. Islanders Mar 30 $26 −$26 -100%
Avalanche vs. Penguins Mar 30 $24 +$16 +67%
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies Mar 24 $10 +$8 +75%
Pelicans vs. Suns Mar 18 $11 +$5 +47%
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs paiN Academy (BO3) - CCT South America Mar 18 $23 −$23 -100%
Magic vs. Spurs Feb 03 $10 +$4 +43%
Bucks vs. Celtics Feb 02 $10 +$2 +19%
Mavericks vs. Rockets Feb 02 $10 +$2 +22%
Pelicans vs. 76ers Feb 02 $10 +$3 +30%
Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies Feb 02 $10 +$4 +35%
Trail Blazers vs. Knicks Jan 31 $10 +$4 +37%
Kings vs. Celtics Jan 31 $10 +$2 +25%
Lakers vs. Wizards Jan 31 $10 +$4 +40%
Grizzlies vs. Pelicans Jan 31 $10 +$8 +75%
Raptors vs. Magic Jan 31 $10 +$9 +89%
Bulls vs. Heat Jan 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Hawks vs. Pacers Jan 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Spurs vs. Hornets Jan 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Kings vs. 76ers Jan 31 $10 +$2 +20%
Nets vs. Nuggets Jan 31 $10 +$4 +37%
Hornets vs. Mavericks Jan 31 $10 +$8 +82%
Rockets vs. Hawks Jan 31 $10 +$6 +56%
Pistons vs. Warriors Jan 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Nets vs. Jazz Jan 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Clippers vs. Nuggets Jan 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Suns Jan 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 52¢ $17 1h
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup BUY Deep Cross Gaming 54¢ $17 35d
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-01? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 46d
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-01? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 46d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 49d
Will Levante UD win on 2026-04-23? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 54d
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-04-23? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 54d
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-04-23? BUY Yes 45¢ $4 54d
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-04-23? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 54d
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-04-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 55d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-22? BUY Yes 79¢ $5 55d
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-04-22? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 55d
Will Girona FC win on 2026-04-21? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 56d
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-04-21? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 56d
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-04-21? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 56d
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-04-21? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 56d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-04-20? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 57d
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-04-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 60d
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-04-17? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 60d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 62d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 62d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-14? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 63d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 63d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 64d
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-04-13? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 64d
Thunder vs. Clippers BUY Thunder 68¢ $24 70d
Penguins vs. Islanders BUY Islanders 54¢ $26 79d
Avalanche vs. Penguins BUY Avalanche 60¢ $24 84d
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs paiN Academy (BO3) - CCT South America BUY paiN Academy 57¢ $23 90d
Pelicans vs. Suns BUY Suns 68¢ $11 102d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.22 · official $16.22 (match) · 208 history records