Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:24:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8e8f…64ba politics 57 markets active 1h ago coverage 233d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%8W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 37% −$2
other 25% +$1
sports 22% −$2
world 7% $0
crypto 6% −$2
culture 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +4.6% -5.4% 100% 0% -5.4%
≤30d 5 +0.9% -8.7% 60% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 5 +0.9% -8.7% 60% 0% -9.0%
all 55 -9.3% -17.9% 15% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 0% -9.6%
10% -25.8% 0% -18.3%
15% -32.9% 0% -26.2%
20% -39.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

233d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses8 / 47
Open positions2
Markets (closed)55 / 57
History coverage233d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $46 +$2 +5%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $73 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $75 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $72 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? May 23 $74 $0 +0%
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility? Mar 04 $75 $0 +0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 27 $237 $0 -0%
Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 12 $73 $0 +0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 10 $1 $0 -50%
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Feb 08 $75 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 01 $75 $0 +0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 28 $149 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 27 $1 $0 -17%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 26 $224 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 25 $154 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 21 $74 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 20 $76 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 17 $1 $0 -50%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Jan 14 $77 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 12 $75 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 10? Jan 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 10 $77 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 08 $76 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 06 $230 $0 -0%
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 04 $75 $0 -0%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 02 $78 $0 -0%
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 01 $75 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 30 $77 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 28 $78 $0 -0%
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 22? Dec 26 $75 $0 +0%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 25 $1 $0 -50%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 23 $76 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 21 $77 $0 -0%
Will Joana Amaral Dias win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Dec 18 $79 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 16 $77 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 14 $77 $0 -0%
Will Marseille win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 12 $78 $0 -0%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 10 $1 $0 -33%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 09 $154 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025 Dec 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Dec 06 $78 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on December 5? Dec 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 03 $80 $0 -0%
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 01 $78 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Nov 29 $81 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? Nov 24 $82 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 22 $82 $0 -0%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 20 $71 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 19 $3 $0 -11%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 16 $159 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $26 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $22 35h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $46 3d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 7d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 7d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $73 7d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $73 9d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 10d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $75 10d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $75 14d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $72 20d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $74 99d
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility? BUY Yes 100¢ $75 106d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $73 110d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $73 113d
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 127d
Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? BUY Yes 100¢ $73 128d
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 128d
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 129d
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? SELL Yes 100¢ $75 129d
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? BUY Yes 99¢ $75 131d
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $75 136d
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $75 137d
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $74 140d
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $74 141d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 141d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 142d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $76 142d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $76 142d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.40 · official $1.40 (match) · 197 history records