Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T12:12:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8e8c…d520 crypto 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 179d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$26 (-0%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate58%15W / 11L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$938per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$148now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 25% −$7
sports 23% −$6
politics 19% −$5
other 17% −$5
world 14% −$4
crypto 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 26 -3.7% -12.8% 58% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 0% -9.6%
10% -21.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -28.8% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,502) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

179d coverage
Net worth$148
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses15 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)26 / 29
History coverage179d
Avg bet$938
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $58 $58 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 100¢ 99¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in May? Jun 25 $35 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $20 in May? Jun 25 $66 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? May 18 $53 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Mar 07 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Mar 07 $10 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 1? Mar 07 $38 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Mar 07 $85 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Mar 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.80 on February 9? Feb 14 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 19? Jan 20 $45 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 18 $3,710 −$4 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 18 $3,724 −$4 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 18 $3,728 −$4 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on January 14? Jan 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 07 $3,118 −$3 -0%
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 07 $3,100 −$3 -0%
Will Mallorca win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 07 $3,127 −$3 -0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 07 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 30? Jan 07 $48 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 07 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 1? Jan 07 $60 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 29? Dec 29 $35 $0 +0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 29 $1,438 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 28 $1,488 −$2 -0%
Will Trump nominate Lorie K. Logan as the next Fed chair? Dec 28 $1,500 −$2 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 28 $1,502 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $58 1h
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $35 35d
Will Solana dip to $20 in May? BUY No 100¢ $66 38d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $53 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $85 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 110d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 1? BUY No 100¢ $38 116d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.80 on February 9? BUY No 100¢ $28 136d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $50 156d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $40 156d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $45 157d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? SELL No 100¢ $3,706 158d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $3,710 158d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $3,721 158d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $3,724 158d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $3,724 158d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $3,728 158d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on January 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 162d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $3,115 169d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $3,118 169d
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $3,097 169d
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $3,100 169d
Will Mallorca win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL No 100¢ $3,124 169d
Will Mallorca win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY No 100¢ $3,127 169d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 1? BUY No 100¢ $60 175d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $33 177d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $48 177d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $35 178d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $147.72 · official $147.72 (match) · 216 history records