Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:26:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8e8b…7a69 other 199 markets active 1h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$35 (-1%) realized −$35 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate33%65W / 134L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$54est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% −$31
other 22% −$1
politics 15% −$1
crypto 10% +$2
world 3% $0
culture 1% −$6
finance 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 26 -0.7% -10.1% 15% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 101 -0.5% -10.0% 22% 0% -10.7%
all 199 -2.5% -11.8% 33% 0% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 0% -10.4%
10% -20.3% 0% -19.0%
15% -28.0% 0% -26.8%
20% -35.0% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses65 / 134
Est. fees paid−$54
Open positions0
Markets (closed)199 / 199
History coverage141d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 199 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $20 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 17 $8 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $19 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11AM ET Jun 04 $7 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10PM ET Jun 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? May 28 $15 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $14 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $7 $0 -0%
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? May 28 $15 $0 +1%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $14 $0 -0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? May 26 $12 −$1 -5%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $20 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $7 $0 -0%
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? May 26 $36 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $7 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $23 $0 -0%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 24 $9 −$1 -7%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele May 24 $10 $0 -2%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $6 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? May 23 $9 $0 -1%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $7 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $15 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 22 $6 $0 -1%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $8 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $15 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? May 21 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4AM ET May 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10PM ET May 14 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7AM ET May 13 $7 $0 +0%
Spread: Chelsea FC (-2.5) May 09 $7 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10AM ET May 07 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5PM ET May 06 $8 $0 +1%
Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 214.5 Apr 25 $667 −$27 -4%
UFC Fight Night: Mayra Bueno Silva vs. Michelle Montague (Women's Bant Apr 25 $683 $0 +0%
Parma Calcio 1913 vs. Pisa SC: O/U 1.5 Apr 25 $39 −$1 -2%
Will Encore Medical not IPO before June 2026? Apr 17 $39 $0 +0%
Trump out as President before 2027? Apr 16 $23 $0 -2%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $8 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $14 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $9 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Apr 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $9 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $9 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $14 $0 -1%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $16 $0 -0%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 08 $6 $0 -4%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $38 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $6 38m
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $6 48m
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $8 1h
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $8 1h
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $7 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $9 16d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $6 19d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $8 19d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $8 19d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $8 19d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $8 19d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $7 19d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $7 19d
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? SELL No 77¢ $6 19d
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? BUY No 76¢ $6 21d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $9 21d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $9 21d
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? SELL No 51¢ $6 21d
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? BUY No 51¢ $6 21d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $5 21d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $5 21d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $7 21d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $7 21d
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? SELL No 88¢ $3 21d
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? SELL No 88¢ $2 22d
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? BUY No 88¢ $5 22d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $6 23d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $6 23d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $7 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 771 history records