Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:25:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8e8a…64f7 weather 146 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (222 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$105 (-36%) realized −$77 · open −$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -62% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -70% what you keep after slip
Net edge-70%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate16%11W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day222.0pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 95% −$108
politics 2% −$4
world 2% +$1
crypto 1% −$1
other 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (222 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-65.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 -61.6% -65.3% 16% 16% -60.7%
≤30d 69 -61.6% -65.3% 16% 16% -60.7%
≤90d 69 -61.6% -65.3% 16% 16% -60.7%
all 69 -61.6% -65.3% 16% 16% -60.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover222.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -65.3% 16% -60.7%
10% ← realistic here -68.6% 14% -64.5%
15% -71.6% 13% -67.9%
20% -74.4% 13% -71.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -57% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -62% · $-wt -57% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -99% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized−$77
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses11 / 58
Open positions77
Markets (closed)69 / 146
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day222.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 77 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 15? Yes 29¢ 100¢ $3 $10 +$7 (+245%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 82¢ 98¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 15? Yes 44¢ 100¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+129%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 16? Yes 43¢ 45¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? Yes 64¢ 60¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? Yes 28¢ 32¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 16? Yes 27¢ 22¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-17%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 16? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 16? Yes 27¢ 34¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+28%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 16? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 16? Yes 40¢ 42¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? Yes 36¢ 37¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 16? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 16? Yes 39¢ 40¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 16? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 16? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 16? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-36%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 16? Yes 35¢ 33¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 16? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+86%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 16? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 16? Yes 46¢ 41¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 16? Yes 47¢ 42¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 51 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$6 +116%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$5 +114%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 +$4 +197%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 +$11 +339%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 +$4 +177%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -43%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +88%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +137%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $6 −$1 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C or higher on June 1 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +14%
Will Trump post "Football" on Truth Social this week? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C or higher on June 15 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 28°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $15 −$14 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 25m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 16? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 16? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 16? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 16? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 16? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 16? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 16? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 16? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.55 · official $105.55 (match) · 272 history records