Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:35:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8e89…5ec5 other 119 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$551 (-25%) realized −$464 · open −$87
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate32%35W / 73L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day37.8pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$130now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$230
other 43% −$300
crypto 3% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-39.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 108 -33.3% -39.7% 32% 31% -31.1%
≤30d 108 -33.3% -39.7% 32% 31% -31.1%
≤90d 108 -33.3% -39.7% 32% 31% -31.1%
all 108 -33.3% -39.7% 32% 31% -31.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -39.7% 31% -31.1%
10% ← realistic here -45.4% 30% -37.7%
15% -50.7% 26% -43.8%
20% -55.5% 19% -49.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$15 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$130
Realized−$464
Unrealized−$87
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses35 / 73
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions11
Markets (closed)108 / 119
History coverage5d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day37.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 87¢ $29 $28 −$1 (-2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $26 $23 −$3 (-10%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $11 $15 +$4 (+37%)
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 66¢ 92¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+40%)
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 76¢ 88¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+15%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 47¢ 42¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 1 Japan? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-13%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 37¢ 0¢ $90 $0 −$90 (-100%)
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 56 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$14 +46%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $20 +$26 +129%
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? Jun 20 $50 +$15 +30%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 20 $10 +$2 +20%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $26 −$25 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 20 $51 −$50 -99%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Donyell Malen: 1+ goals Jun 20 $20 +$9 +46%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$8 -76%
Netherlands to score first vs. Sweden? Jun 20 $10 +$6 +57%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Team to Take First Corner Jun 20 $10 +$11 +106%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 20 $10 +$13 +128%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $21 +$3 +15%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $41 −$40 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Total Corners Odd or Even? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 20 $20 +$19 +93%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $20 +$32 +158%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $14 +$9 +65%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $31 +$51 +165%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Morocco? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $15 +$20 +134%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $10 −$6 -61%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $10 −$8 -78%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $10 −$7 -65%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $20 +$7 +36%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $6 +$22 +365%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Canada vs. Qatar: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: Total Corners Odd or Even? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $97 −$93 -96%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 −$9 -87%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $30 −$28 -91%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 +$14 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 33m
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 34m
Tunisia vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 34m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 43¢ $20 1h
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $66 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 100¢ $12 1h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 22¢ $26 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $23 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $15 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 58¢ $20 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 83¢ $10 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 4¢ $10 1h
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? BUY Yes 76¢ $50 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 87¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 26¢ $20 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 42¢ $20 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 33¢ $31 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 69¢ $20 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 1¢ $5 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 4h
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 54¢ $51 4h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 4h
Donyell Malen: 1+ goals SELL No 99¢ $30 4h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 4h
Netherlands to score first vs. Sweden? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Team to Take First Corner SELL Sweden 99¢ $21 4h
Netherlands leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $23 4h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Sweden? SELL Yes 6¢ $24 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 31¢ $41 4h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $129.69 · official $129.76 (match) · 193 history records