Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:44:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8e88…550a crypto 26 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$141 (+63%) realized +$142 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +64% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +36% what you keep after slip
Net edge+36%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%10W / 14L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day15.1pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% +$80
other 13% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+47.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +63.5% +47.9% 42% 42% +4.7%
≤30d 24 +63.5% +47.9% 42% 42% +4.7%
≤90d 24 +63.5% +47.9% 42% 42% +4.7%
all 24 +63.5% +47.9% 42% 42% +4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +47.9% 42% +4.7%
10% +33.8% 42% -5.3%
15% +20.8% 42% -14.5%
20% +9.0% 29% -22.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +42% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +63% · $-wt +42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +160% → late -33% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$10 · ×2.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$142
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses10 / 14
Open positions2
Markets (closed)24 / 26
History coverage2d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day15.1
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Down 34¢ 28¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-19%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$8 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 19 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$12 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$35 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$161 +3021%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +36%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$7 +134%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +37%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $4 +$2 +46%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 +$2 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $26 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 5h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $2 6h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 13h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $4 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 37h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 39h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 42h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $3 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $2 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.03 · official $6.17 (match) · 45 history records