Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:42:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
8E 0x8e86…7932 sports 1499 markets active 7h ago coverage 319d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Covers last 318d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$969 (+2%) realized +$954 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%693W / 803L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$433est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$111now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$120
7 days−$288
14 days−$78
30 days+$330
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$134
other 3% +$395
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 -12.3% -20.6% 36% 34% -19.3%
≤30d 206 -1.3% -10.7% 44% 43% -6.0%
≤90d 1180 -27.8% -34.7% 32% 31% -24.2%
all 1496 +3.5% -6.3% 46% 46% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.3% 46% -8.6%
10% -15.3% 44% -17.3%
15% -23.5% 39% -25.3%
20% -31.0% 34% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$26 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

319d coverage
Net worth$111
Realized+$954
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses693 / 803
Est. fees paid−$433
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1496 / 1499
History coverage319d ⚠
Avg bet$33
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1496 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2026? Yes 28¢ 34¢ $57 $67 +$10 (+18%)
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026? Yes 23¢ 28¢ $24 $29 +$5 (+22%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 +$14 +93%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $20 +$32 +158%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $40 −$39 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 15 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Top Esports win LPL 2026 Split 2? Jun 15 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $66 −$66 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $47 +$55 +119%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $23 +$28 +119%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $30 +$20 +67%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $53 +$49 +93%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $28 −$27 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $15 +$9 +62%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $39 +$64 +165%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $48 −$48 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 14 $38 −$38 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $29 −$29 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $73 +$40 +55%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 14 $51 +$40 +79%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $35 +$2 +6%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $20 +$31 +152%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $45 +$57 +128%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $18 +$81 +442%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $15 +$36 +246%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$26 +511%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $49 +$53 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $20 +$85 +414%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $56 −$56 -100%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 13 $35 −$35 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $75 −$75 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 13 $63 −$63 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 13 $39 −$39 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $38 −$38 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 13 $47 −$47 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $20 6h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $22 8h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 49¢ $51 17h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 45¢ $47 17h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY Vitality 59¢ $30 17h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 100¢ $102 17h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $15 17h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $17 17h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $28 17h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 45¢ $23 17h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 100¢ $25 17h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 61¢ $15 18h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 51¢ $53 18h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 37¢ $39 24h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 33¢ $35 24h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 40¢ $20 24h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $113 28h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 50¢ $25 41h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 36¢ $38 41h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 42h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 42h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $7 42h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 42h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 94¢ $35 42h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $71 42h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 61¢ $30 43h
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) BUY Knicks 55¢ $51 43h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL Team WE 100¢ $51 43h
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 100¢ $102 43h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Team WE 39¢ $20 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $110.68 · official $110.69 (match) · 3406 history records