Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:31:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8e85…dbed crypto 43 markets active 5h ago coverage 98d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 98d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,753 (-21%) realized −$2,753 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip
Net edge-53%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate31%14W / 31L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$306per market
Trades / day35.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$654
7 days−$509
14 days−$509
30 days−$1,016
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$455
other 6% −$603
sports 6% −$520
tech 4% +$145
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-44.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -74.4% -76.8% 20% 20% -48.8%
≤30d 18 -38.6% -44.5% 39% 39% -53.1%
≤90d 43 -36.3% -42.3% 33% 26% -20.9%
all 45 -39.1% -44.9% 31% 24% -21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -44.9% 24% -21.2%
10% ← realistic here -50.2% 18% -28.7%
15% -55.0% 9% -35.6%
20% -59.4% 7% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -39% → late -40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
79.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$70 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,753
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses14 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 43
History coverage98d ⚠
Avg bet$306
Trades / day35.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions (21 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $620 −$615 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $518 +$145 +28%
Game 1: Both Teams Slay a Dragon? May 25 $146 +$42 +29%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs against All authority - Map 2 Winner May 25 $5 −$5 -97%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 25 $97 −$34 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 25 $27 +$24 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 25 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 25 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 25 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 25 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 25 $5 +$7 +130%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 25 $124 −$122 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers - Game 2 May 25 $375 −$375 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers - Game 1 May 25 $136 +$16 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 25 $10 +$10 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Mar 31 $60 +$7 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Mar 31 $19 +$6 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Mar 31 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Mar 31 $62 −$37 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Mar 31 $63 −$62 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Mar 31 $3 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Mar 23 $88 −$10 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Mar 23 $191 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Mar 23 $525 −$6 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Mar 23 $859 −$20 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Mar 21 $95 −$28 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Mar 21 $292 −$82 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Mar 21 $181 −$25 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Mar 21 $425 −$68 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Mar 21 $27 −$12 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Mar 21 $363 −$150 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Mar 21 $928 −$198 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 4PM ET Mar 20 $189 −$3 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10AM ET Mar 20 $549 +$14 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 6PM ET Mar 20 $925 −$90 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 9AM ET Mar 20 $678 −$21 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11AM ET Mar 20 $740 −$10 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 12PM ET Mar 20 $831 +$18 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 5PM ET Mar 20 $931 +$21 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8AM ET Mar 20 $1,317 +$430 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 3PM ET Mar 11 $543 −$70 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 2PM ET Mar 11 $109 −$19 -18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $303 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 9¢ $31 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $317 5h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL Yes 64¢ $663 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 49¢ $50 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 49¢ $468 5d
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs against All authority - Map 2 Winner BUY against All authority 6¢ $5 23d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 2 Winner SELL Dplus KIA 95¢ $97 23d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 2 Winner SELL Dplus KIA 95¢ $45 23d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 69¢ $35 23d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA 41¢ $17 23d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA 41¢ $3 23d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA 41¢ $3 23d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA 41¢ $9 23d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA 41¢ $29 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $26 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Up 12¢ $4 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Up 12¢ $2 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Up 12¢ $0 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Up 12¢ $24 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Up 13¢ $20 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $27 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $8 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $4 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records