Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:54:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

8E 0x8e83…e1a8 other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$5 · open −$4

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip

Net edge-28%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%2W / 2L

Drawdown65%max

Avg bet$39per market

Trades / day4.2pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit33%portable

Net worth$92now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-24.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	-16.7%	-24.7%	50%	50%	+15.3%
≤30d	4	-16.7%	-24.7%	50%	50%	+15.3%
≤90d	4	-16.7%	-24.7%	50%	50%	+15.3%
all	4	-16.7%	-24.7%	50%	50%	+15.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.2 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-24.7%	50%	+15.3%
10%	-31.9%	50%	+4.3%
15%	-38.5%	50%	-5.8%
20%	-44.5%	50%	-15.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 62% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +23% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -17% · $-wt +23% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$34 vs −$19 · ×1.8 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$92

Realized+$5

Unrealized−$4

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses2 / 2

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)4 / 6

History coverage2d

Avg bet$39

Trades / day4.2

Drawdown65%

Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	48¢	46¢	$68	$66	−$2 (-3%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5	Under	37¢	34¢	$27	$26	−$2 (-6%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$55	+$42	+76%
Brahim Díaz: 2+ goals	Jun 19	$21	−$20	-96%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$45	+$26	+57%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score	Jun 18	$18	−$18	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	48¢	$69	1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5	BUY Under	37¢	$28	1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$97	2h
Brahim Díaz: 2+ goals	SELL Yes	0¢	$0	21h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	56¢	$55	23h
Brahim Díaz: 2+ goals	BUY Yes	6¢	$21	23h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	63¢	$45	35h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	48¢	$18	47h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91.68 · official $91.68 (match) · 9 history records