Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:01:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
8E 0x8e80…419f other 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 228d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this Fresh edge
Total PnL +$250 (+12%) realized +$207 · open +$43
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate67%20W / 10L
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$1,163now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$51
7 days+$174
14 days+$174
30 days+$174
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% +$132
sports 5% +$98
crypto 3% −$11
tech 2% +$1
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +27.7% +15.5% 65% 55% +11.7%
≤30d 20 +27.7% +15.5% 65% 55% +11.7%
≤90d 20 +27.7% +15.5% 65% 55% +11.7%
all 30 +25.5% +13.5% 67% 50% +6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.5% 50% +6.7%
10% +2.7% 40% -3.5%
15% -7.3% 37% -12.8%
20% -16.3% 30% -21.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +56% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$29 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

228d coverage
Net worth$1,163
Realized+$207
Unrealized+$43
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses20 / 10
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions22
Markets (closed)30 / 52
History coverage228d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $100 $126 +$26 (+26%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $100 $118 +$18 (+18%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $100 $112 +$12 (+12%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $108 +$8 (+8%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $107 +$7 (+7%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $100 $89 −$11 (-11%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $100 $84 −$16 (-16%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 62¢ 64¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 69¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 90¢ 88¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$28 +55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$22 +73%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $102 +$107 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$3 +31%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$29 +57%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 +$14 +276%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$37 +73%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 +$97 +474%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$44 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will no CEO be announced in 2025? Jun 16 $35 +$1 +3%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem Jun 16 $35 +$1 +3%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-30? Feb 14 $40 +$8 +20%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 19? Nov 21 $5 +$1 +19%
ATP World Tour Finals, Jimmy Connors Group: Taylor Fritz vs Alex de Mi Nov 16 $20 +$57 +285%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Nov 13 $10 +$7 +79%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 15? Nov 11 $19 +$1 +5%
Will anyone other than the listed individuals win Staten Island? Nov 11 $40 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-08? Nov 08 $52 −$52 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on November 5? Nov 08 $18 $0 +2%
Will the price of Solana be above $150 on November 5? Nov 08 $24 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down on November 5? Nov 05 $19 −$19 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 83¢ $50 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 80¢ $30 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 55¢ $20 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 85¢ $20 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $30 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $40 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $30 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 80¢ $20 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $20 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $10 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 3d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $41 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 5d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 5d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 5d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $15 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,163.29 · official $1,163.30 (match) · 81 history records