Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:58:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8E 0x8e7f…e1ae world 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 447d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate60%27W / 18L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 65% +$2
other 11% +$1
tech 6% $0
politics 5% +$3
crypto 4% −$1
finance 4% $0
sports 3% $0
culture 2% $0
economics 1% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.1% -9.4% 50% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 15 -0.0% -9.5% 40% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 15 -0.0% -9.5% 40% 0% -9.2%
all 45 +2.3% -7.5% 60% 7% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 7% -9.0%
10% -16.3% 2% -17.7%
15% -24.4% 2% -25.7%
20% -31.8% 2% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.21 per $1 lost it wins $3.21
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

447d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses27 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage447d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $37 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 16 $38 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $2 $0 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $56 +$1 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $41 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $70 +$1 +2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $70 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $33 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $9 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $36 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 08 $33 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $33 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 03 $32 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 03 $34 −$1 -2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 18 $18 −$1 -6%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 25,000-50,000 between Dec 15 $3 +$1 +16%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? Jun 22 $5 $0 +6%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 30 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? May 10 $5 $0 +1%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 09 $5 $0 +1%
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? May 07 $5 $0 +1%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 06 $4 +$1 +18%
Will Marcel Ciolacu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runo Apr 24 $1 $0 +5%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in April? Apr 23 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 23 $7 $0 -0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Apr 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $79000 on Apr 25? Apr 21 $7 $0 +1%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 21 $8 $0 +0%
Will Steve Mnuchin buy TikTok? Apr 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Apr 17 $16 $0 +1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 14 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? Apr 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 12 $8 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Apr 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 03 $3 +$1 +54%
Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in his first 100 days? Apr 02 $2 $0 +2%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will Tari Eason win 2024-25 NBA 6th Man of the Year? Mar 31 $20 $0 +0%
Israel retaliates against Houthis in March? Mar 31 $24 $0 +0%
Will Another team win the UEFA Europa League? Mar 30 $1 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast buy TikTok before April? Mar 28 $25 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $37 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $37 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 38¢ $11 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 38¢ $26 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 38¢ $38 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $38 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $37 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 15¢ $8 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 15¢ $2 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 15¢ $8 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 15¢ $1 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 15¢ $19 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $34 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $34 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $7 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 65¢ $34 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 63¢ $33 6d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $30 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $31 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $33 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $33 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 62¢ $7 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 62¢ $30 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 62¢ $37 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $36 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $36 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 54¢ $33 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.95 · official $0.00 (match) · 138 history records