Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T01:17:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8e7b…2564 sports 116 markets active 2h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$151 (-7%) realized −$146 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%50W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day10.9pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$54
7 days−$355
14 days−$184
30 days−$209
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$345
other 14% +$131
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -29.5% -36.2% 33% 33% -40.8%
≤30d 115 +2.6% -7.2% 43% 43% -18.0%
≤90d 115 +2.6% -7.2% 43% 43% -18.0%
all 115 +2.6% -7.2% 43% 43% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 43% -18.0%
10% -16.1% 43% -25.8%
15% -24.2% 43% -33.0%
20% -31.6% 43% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +31% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$19 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$146
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses50 / 65
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)115 / 116
History coverage15d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Yes 56¢ 46¢ $32 $26 −$5 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 56 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $30 −$30 -98%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 29 $20 −$20 -98%
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $23 −$23 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $19 +$25 +128%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $26 +$23 +86%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $49 −$29 -58%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: DR Congo O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $14 +$15 +103%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $19 −$19 -98%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $16 −$15 -99%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $27 −$27 -99%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $28 +$10 +34%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 27 $20 +$20 +101%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $25 −$25 -100%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $16 −$16 -100%
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) Jun 26 $33 +$33 +97%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $19 +$15 +82%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $27 −$26 -98%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $27 −$26 -98%
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $25 −$24 -98%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 25 $20 −$19 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $22 −$22 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $9 +$38 +413%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $15 −$15 -99%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $20 −$20 -99%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $21 −$21 -98%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $22 −$22 -99%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $25 +$26 +101%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $25 +$27 +105%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $25 +$26 +105%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $25 −$25 -99%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $50 −$49 -99%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $50 +$41 +81%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 23 $24 −$24 -98%
Panama vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $25 −$25 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $31 −$30 -98%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $23 −$23 -99%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $25 +$18 +73%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 23 $18 −$17 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $16 +$19 +122%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $20 −$2 -9%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $20 +$15 +73%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 22 $17 −$17 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $20 +$18 +89%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $22 −$22 -99%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $28 −$3 -12%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $19 +$16 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $32 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 3h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 47¢ $20 4h
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $23 33h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $44 44h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 43¢ $19 44h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $49 45h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $26 46h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 44¢ $29 47h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: DR Congo O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $29 2d
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $19 2d
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 44¢ $19 2d
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: DR Congo O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $14 2d
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $16 2d
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 45¢ $20 2d
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $27 2d
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 91¢ $38 2d
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) SELL Belgium 90¢ $39 2d
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 67¢ $28 2d
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Belgium 44¢ $20 2d
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $25 3d
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $15 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $16 3d
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) SELL Senegal 99¢ $66 3d
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) BUY Senegal 58¢ $23 3d
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $34 3d
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $19 3d
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) BUY Senegal 37¢ $10 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 23¢ $27 3d
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 16¢ $27 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.48 · official $27.62 · 180 history records