Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:25:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8E
0x8e7a…f429
other · 184 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$15,714 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$14,222 · open −$2,521
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Net worth$11,439
Realized−$14,222
Unrealized−$2,521
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses103 / 61
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$639
Open positions20
Markets (closed)164 / 184
History coverage686d
Avg bet$1,300
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%
Chart Positions 20 History 164 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1,810
30 days−$2,739
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $4,985 $4,988 +$2 (+0%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 50¢ 76¢ $1,356 $2,069 +$712 (+52%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,000 $1,025 +$25 (+2%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 50¢ 24¢ $1,356 $644 −$712 (-52%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $400 $350 −$50 (-12%)
Will Extended launch a token by September 30 2026? No 17¢ 27¢ $198 $305 +$108 (+54%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $300 $250 −$50 (-17%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $300 $250 −$50 (-17%)
Clavicular sentenced to prison? No 87¢ 84¢ $174 $169 −$5 (-3%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $200 $150 −$50 (-25%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $200 $150 −$50 (-25%)
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $200 $150 −$50 (-25%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $200 $150 −$50 (-25%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $200 $150 −$50 (-25%)
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $200 $150 −$50 (-25%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $200 $150 −$50 (-25%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $200 $150 −$50 (-25%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? No $1,099 $104 −$994 (-90%)
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $50 −$50 (-50%)
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes $100 $35 −$65 (-65%)
Will Kyle Sweetser be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alabama? Yes 92¢ $280 $0 −$280 (-100%)
Madrid Open: Dino Prizmic vs Tomas Etcheverry Dino Prizmic $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Kia Tigers Lotte Giants 45¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
KBO: LG Twins vs. Doosan Bears Doosan Bears 35¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Hanwha Eagles NC Dinos 53¢ $265 $0 −$265 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $56,372 −$1,812 -3%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $2,000 +$2 +0%
Will Argentina dollarize by June 30, 2026? May 30 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 28 $8,109 −$1,474 -18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 26 $1,125 +$15 +1%
Roland Garros ATP: Vit Kopriva vs Corentin Moutet May 26 $4,531 +$1,469 +32%
Roland Garros ATP: Sebastian Baez vs Roman Andres Burruchaga May 26 $8,155 +$2,845 +35%
Roland Garros ATP: Martin Landaluce vs Juan Carlos Prado May 26 $3,941 −$3,939 -100%
Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026? May 26 $19,362 −$22 -0%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? May 25 $2,841 +$192 +7%
Will Solstice launch a token by June 30 2026? May 25 $216 −$214 -99%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 23 $7,192 +$82 +1%
Will Keisha Lance Bottoms win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic pri May 20 $235 +$13 +5%
Will Charles Booker be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky? May 20 $116 +$7 +6%
Will Jasmine Clark be the Democratic nominee for GA-13? May 20 $100 +$6 +6%
Will "Worst Ex Ever: Season 2" be the #2 global Netflix show this week May 19 $6 $0 +2%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 31, 2026? May 19 $1,289 +$9 +1%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026? May 19 $3,097 +$55 +2%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 19, 2026? May 19 $170 +$10 +6%
LoL: Estral Esports vs RED Academy (BO5) - Circuito Desafiante Playoff May 19 $440 +$13 +3%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 18 $97 +$8 +9%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $448 −$4 -1%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 50m May 12 $291 +$5 +2%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? May 09 $5,016 +$598 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? May 09 $2,597 +$20 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 09 $1,622 +$11 +1%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 8? May 09 $323 +$2 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on May 8? May 08 $23 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in April 2026? May 07 $500 +$1 +0%
Will London have less than 20mm of precipitation in April? May 05 $70 $0 +1%
Will Seoul have less than 40mm of precipitation in April? May 04 $90 +$1 +1%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? May 01 $174 +$26 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on Apri May 01 $376 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 46-47°F on April 30? May 01 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 73°F or below on April 30? May 01 $117 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April? May 01 $476 +$24 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET May 01 $101 +$18 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on Apri Apr 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 28? Apr 30 $634 +$7 +1%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 30 $495 +$5 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026? Apr 30 $137 −$115 -84%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 30 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 28 $1,000 +$7 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on April 27 Apr 28 $18 +$1 +5%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? Apr 28 $1,960 +$34 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on April 28 Apr 28 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 52-53°F on April 28 Apr 28 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 50-51°F on April 28 Apr 28 $500 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on April 28 Apr 28 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 38-39°F on April 28 Apr 28 $100 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 25% −$1,725
other 23% −$8,278
sports 19% +$72
weather 14% −$65
tech 9% −$1,759
politics 5% −$2,932
world 3% −$151
culture 1% −$1,942
finance 1% +$36
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $412 1h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $309 1h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $260 1h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $49 1h
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $206 1h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $206 1h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $206 1h
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $206 1h
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 1h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $206 1h
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $206 1h
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $206 1h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $206 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No $822 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No $150 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No $8 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No $0 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No $17 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No $1 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No $3 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No $1 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No $98 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No $0 3h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,029 31h
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $22,874 10d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22,902 10d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10,796 10d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $9,144 10d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10,785 10d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $498 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-22.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 22 -4.8% -13.9% 73% 9% -11.5%
≤90d 162 -14.8% -23.0% 62% 12% -15.9%
all 164 -14.4% -22.6% 63% 12% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.6% 12% -15.2%
10% -30.0% 9% -23.3%
15% -36.7% 7% -30.7%
20% -42.9% 5% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,439.26 · official $11,439.26 (match) · 1541 history records