Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:50:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8e79…9076 sports 296 markets active 2h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$596 (-5%) realized −$592 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%126W / 163L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$98est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$312now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$274
7 days+$207
14 days+$446
30 days−$211
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$136
other 43% −$213
world 3% −$245
crypto 2% −$85
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 134 -2.5% -11.8% 40% 40% -5.8%
≤30d 182 -4.4% -13.5% 42% 42% -12.3%
≤90d 289 -2.6% -11.9% 44% 44% -14.6%
all 289 -2.6% -11.9% 44% 44% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 44% -14.6%
10% -20.3% 44% -22.8%
15% -28.0% 43% -30.3%
20% -35.1% 42% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$37 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$312
Realized−$592
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses126 / 163
Est. fees paid−$98
Open positions7
Markets (closed)289 / 296
History coverage89d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 289 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Netherlands leading at halftime? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $90 $89 −$1 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Over 60¢ 58¢ $45 $44 −$1 (-2%)
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Netherlands 33¢ 32¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-2%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Over 30¢ 30¢ $31 $30 −$1 (-2%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 24¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Sweden? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 157 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $26 +$141 +550%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $36 −$35 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $30 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 20 $11 +$62 +549%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $203 −$200 -98%
Morocco to win the second half? Jun 19 $30 −$30 -98%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 19 $173 +$222 +128%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $61 +$51 +84%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 19 $30 +$35 +114%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $31 +$39 +129%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $38 +$68 +180%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $25 −$25 -99%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $36 −$35 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $41 −$40 -99%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $20 +$37 +180%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 19 $20 +$22 +110%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $15 +$32 +206%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $41 +$53 +130%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $59 −$58 -99%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $25 −$25 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Korea Republic to score first vs. Mexico? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $36 +$33 +93%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $41 +$48 +118%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $39 +$64 +165%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $57 +$53 +93%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $162 +$92 +57%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $30 +$28 +93%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 +$76 +250%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $26 +$26 +97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $25 −$25 -98%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $132 −$130 -99%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $25 +$23 +90%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $33 +$31 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 24¢ $10 1h
Netherlands leading at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $46 1h
Netherlands leading at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $46 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 33¢ $36 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $46 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 2.5 BUY Over 30¢ $32 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $36 10h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 49¢ $30 10h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 15¢ $26 10h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? SELL Yes 100¢ $73 10h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 24¢ $51 11h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $30 11h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $203 11h
Morocco to win the second half? BUY Yes 46¢ $30 11h
Morocco leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $395 11h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 15¢ $11 12h
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 43¢ $173 12h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 31¢ $31 12h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 13h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $25 16h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $30 16h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 13¢ $36 16h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 19¢ $51 16h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $30 16h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 24h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 35¢ $38 27h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $20 27h
United States leading at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $30 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $312.36 · official $312.36 (match) · 517 history records