Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:57:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8E
0x8e77…c4f3
crypto · 303 markets active 4h ago
0.0score
−$24,637 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$65,614 · open +$28,586
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$268,890
Realized−$65,614
Unrealized+$28,586
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses250 / 48
Whale WR (big bets)87%
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions57
Markets (closed)298 / 303
History coverage99d
Avg bet$5,692
Trades / day31.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 57 History 298 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$61,008
7 days−$60,916
14 days−$38,299
30 days−$99,810
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 65¢ 84¢ $19,608 $25,350 +$5,742 (+29%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 71¢ 81¢ $21,449 $24,628 +$3,179 (+15%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 88¢ 99¢ $17,416 $19,554 +$2,138 (+12%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 90¢ 96¢ $17,967 $19,260 +$1,293 (+7%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 83¢ 97¢ $12,591 $14,647 +$2,056 (+16%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 52¢ 77¢ $6,683 $9,972 +$3,289 (+49%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 86¢ 98¢ $8,650 $9,845 +$1,195 (+14%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 82¢ 91¢ $8,200 $9,140 +$940 (+11%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 85¢ 84¢ $8,500 $8,350 −$150 (-2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 66¢ 72¢ $6,650 $7,250 +$600 (+9%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 83¢ 88¢ $6,200 $6,562 +$363 (+6%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 66¢ 62¢ $6,625 $6,150 −$475 (-7%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 97¢ 100¢ $4,855 $4,988 +$132 (+3%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 98¢ 99¢ $4,900 $4,962 +$62 (+1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? No 93¢ 99¢ $4,650 $4,958 +$308 (+7%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $4,870 $4,955 +$85 (+2%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? No 83¢ 99¢ $4,150 $4,932 +$782 (+19%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? No 73¢ 98¢ $3,650 $4,918 +$1,267 (+35%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 97¢ 98¢ $4,830 $4,892 +$62 (+1%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 86¢ 98¢ $4,300 $4,885 +$585 (+14%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No 66¢ 98¢ $3,300 $4,882 +$1,582 (+48%)
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? No 95¢ 97¢ $4,750 $4,855 +$105 (+2%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $4,640 $4,692 +$52 (+1%)
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? No 62¢ 92¢ $3,100 $4,625 +$1,525 (+49%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 79¢ 92¢ $3,950 $4,625 +$675 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Jun 12 $2,830 −$2,830 -100%
Infinex FDV above $400M one day after launch? Jun 12 $630 −$630 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 December 1-7? Jun 12 $620 −$620 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $1,200 −$1,200 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Jun 12 $2,574 −$2,574 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Jun 12 $3,489 −$3,489 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? Jun 12 $2,600 −$2,600 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 December 1-7? Jun 12 $1,680 −$1,680 -100%
Will USD.AI launch a token by March 31? Jun 12 $340 −$340 -100%
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $4,730 −$4,730 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026? Jun 12 $1,870 −$1,870 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Jun 12 $4,500 −$4,500 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 December 1-7? Jun 12 $1,600 −$1,600 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Jun 12 $1,280 −$1,280 -100%
Over $5M committed to the Infinex public sale? Jun 12 $20 −$827 -4091%
Will Tyler Robinson rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 202 Jun 12 $1,540 −$1,540 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Jun 12 $3,950 −$3,950 -100%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31? Jun 12 $2,450 −$2,450 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3,100 December 1-7? Jun 12 $1,020 −$1,020 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Jun 12 $5,118 −$5,118 -100%
Meteora FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 12 $1,880 −$1,880 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Jun 12 $1,480 −$1,480 -100%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 12 $119 −$338 -283%
Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $1,100 −$1,100 -100%
Will Solana dip to $70 in February? Jun 12 $2,919 −$2,919 -100%
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 31? Jun 12 $803 −$803 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 December 1-7? Jun 12 $1,220 −$1,220 -100%
Will Solana reach $140 December 1-7? Jun 12 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Will d4vd be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Jun 12 $4,574 −$4,574 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $560 −$560 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 12 $4,835 +$135 +3%
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? Jun 10 $290 +$4 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $4,905 +$75 +2%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 08 $2,824 +$55 +2%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 07 $2,457 +$37 +2%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 03 $2,225 +$275 +12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 03 $94,581 +$9,986 +11%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $4,434 +$566 +13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $8,600 +$1,400 +16%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $45,772 +$4,229 +9%
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? Jun 01 $817 +$144 +18%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $3,700 +$1,300 +35%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $4,075 +$925 +23%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $4,300 +$700 +16%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $4,667 +$334 +7%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $14,250 +$750 +5%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 01 $17,990 +$2,009 +11%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 27 $2,460 +$27 +1%
Netanyahu out by May 31? May 27 $598 +$4 +1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? May 27 $4,810 +$175 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 57% −$28,272
crypto 21% +$31,766
finance 9% +$10,068
other 6% +$5,898
economics 4% +$6,071
sports 2% −$4,247
politics 2% +$2,906
tech 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 99¢ $4,970 3h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $2,001 5h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $4,930 21h
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? SELL No 100¢ $294 41h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $4,980 46h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 92¢ $4,600 2d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $2,944 2d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $4,940 3d
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $2,279 4d
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $16 4d
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1 4d
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $2 4d
Will GameStop acquire eBay? BUY No 85¢ $8,301 4d
Will GameStop acquire eBay? BUY No 85¢ $199 4d
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $17 4d
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $20 4d
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $13 4d
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $18 4d
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $23 4d
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1 4d
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1 4d
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1 4d
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1 4d
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1 4d
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1 4d
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1 4d
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1 4d
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1 4d
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $23 4d
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -85.0% -86.5% 15% 0% -81.3%
≤30d 78 -42.4% -47.9% 53% 18% -26.1%
≤90d 224 -13.1% -21.4% 79% 24% -15.8%
all 298 -3.4% -12.6% 84% 23% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover31.4 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.6% 23% -13.4%
10% -20.9% 8% -21.7%
15% ← realistic here -28.6% 4% -29.2%
20% -35.6% 2% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $268,890.13 · official $268,893.01 (match) · 3500 history records