Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:51:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8e76…f0f2 sports 152 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,199 (-4%) realized −$1,590 · open +$391
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate66%97W / 49L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$188per market
Trades / day25.8pace
Fees−$47est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$3,864now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$55
7 days−$930
14 days−$1,643
30 days−$1,643
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$753
sports 33% −$461
world 2% $0
crypto 1% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -0.7% -10.1% 58% 40% -18.8%
≤30d 146 -4.2% -13.3% 66% 29% -15.5%
≤90d 146 -4.2% -13.3% 66% 29% -15.5%
all 146 -4.2% -13.3% 66% 29% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.3% 29% -15.5%
10% ← realistic here -21.6% 18% -23.6%
15% -29.2% 14% -31.0%
20% -36.1% 11% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$64 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$3,864
Realized−$1,590
Unrealized+$391
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses97 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$47
Open positions6
Markets (closed)146 / 152
History coverage16d
Avg bet$188
Trades / day25.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 146 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $2,155 $2,325 +$170 (+8%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $705 $1,005 +$300 (+43%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $506 $418 −$89 (-17%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 1.5 Under 86¢ 94¢ $67 $73 +$7 (+10%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $30 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score No 57¢ 70¢ $11 $14 +$3 (+23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan to score first vs. Colombia? Jun 18 $24 +$5 +22%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $83 +$7 +8%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $6 +$8 +137%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 +$18 +73%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $48 +$14 +28%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $44 +$6 +13%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $39 +$5 +14%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $25 +$12 +46%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $429 −$55 -13%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $415 −$414 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $1,346 −$929 -69%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $798 +$102 +13%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 15 $338 +$30 +9%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $33 −$32 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $895 +$145 +16%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $312 +$22 +7%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $386 +$70 +18%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $467 +$60 +13%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $541 +$148 +27%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $233 +$43 +19%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 12 $187 −$187 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 12 $107 +$13 +12%
Ilkley: Tristan Schoolkate vs Oliver Tarvet Jun 12 $231 +$2 +1%
Cattolica: Francesco Forti vs Andrea Guerrieri Jun 12 $42 −$41 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 12 $14 −$3 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -94%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 12 $100 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +10%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $1 +$1 +127%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 12 $16 −$16 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $6 +$34 +551%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $21 +$44 +216%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 11 $258 +$5 +2%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $253 +$5 +2%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $245 +$7 +3%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $18 +$14 +78%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $228 +$3 +1%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $232 −$232 -100%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $137 +$14 +10%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $804 +$47 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $30 5m
Uzbekistan to score first vs. Colombia? SELL No 99¢ $30 7m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 1.5 BUY Under 86¢ $67 1h
Uzbekistan to score first vs. Colombia? BUY No 81¢ $24 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $12 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 100¢ $90 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? SELL Yes 50¢ $4 2h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? SELL Yes 50¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? SELL Yes 33¢ $8 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 92¢ $83 3h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $44 4h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 35¢ $4 5h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 71¢ $4 6h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 71¢ $10 6h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 78¢ $5 9h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 78¢ $11 9h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 78¢ $28 9h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 20h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 20h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 20h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 20h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 80¢ $1 20h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 80¢ $4 20h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 100¢ $21 20h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 100¢ $5 20h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 100¢ $24 20h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 90¢ $6 22h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 90¢ $6 22h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 90¢ $19 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,864.04 · official $3,863.41 (match) · 474 history records