Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:20:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8e75…a4db sports 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$12 (-6%) realized −$9 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate64%16W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 35% +$4
crypto 31% +$2
other 16% −$12
world 11% −$4
tech 3% $0
culture 2% −$1
finance 1% $0
economics 1% $0
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -5.5% -14.5% 64% 28% -15.0%
≤30d 25 -5.5% -14.5% 64% 28% -15.0%
≤90d 25 -5.5% -14.5% 64% 28% -15.0%
all 25 -5.5% -14.5% 64% 28% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 28% -15.0%
10% -22.6% 20% -23.2%
15% -30.1% 16% -30.6%
20% -37.0% 8% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -48% → late +34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized−$9
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses16 / 9
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions16
Markets (closed)25 / 41
History coverage5d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? No 87¢ 76¢ $18 $16 −$2 (-12%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? No 66¢ 60¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-10%)
Will Brazil reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 78¢ 77¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? No 89¢ 98¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+10%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? No 94¢ 98¢ $6 $7 +$0 (+4%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? No 95¢ 95¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 48¢ 52¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+7%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? No 34¢ 34¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 35¢ 32¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? No 94¢ 97¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 93¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 96¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 28 or 29 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections? No 95¢ 95¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 96¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? No 95¢ 90¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 95¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 Jun 15 $2 +$1 +32%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $9 $0 +1%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $11 +$1 +7%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $3 +$10 +388%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +22%
Will Collin Morikawa finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Ope Jun 15 $2 $0 +14%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4 +$4 +86%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $7 +$3 +37%
Will Team Heretics win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 14 $6 +$1 +10%
Will Solana reach $70 on June 13? Jun 14 $12 $0 +1%
1H Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 14 $2 +$1 +46%
Will Solana reach $70 on June 12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 12? Jun 13 $7 $0 +6%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $6 +$1 +10%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $3 $0 +8%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $17 −$1 -8%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Kimi Antonelli achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Catalunya G Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $2 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $3 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $9 9h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 66¢ $12 12h
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 99¢ $9 14h
Will Brazil reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 78¢ $8 17h
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 35¢ $3 17h
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY No 87¢ $18 17h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $3 17h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 93¢ $11 17h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $5 17h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $1 17h
Will Solana reach $70 on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $12 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $4 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 73¢ $7 3d
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 12? BUY No 94¢ $7 3d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 48¢ $3 3d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 92¢ $3 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 17¢ $2 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $3 3d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 $12 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $1 3d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 34¢ $5 3d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $6 3d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 BUY No 76¢ $2 3d
Will Solana reach $70 on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $1 3d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $6 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 82¢ $3 3d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 3d
1H Spread: Spurs (-7.5) BUY Knicks 68¢ $2 3d
Will Kimi Antonelli achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Catalunya G BUY Yes 79¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.16 · official $70.16 (match) · 60 history records