Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:54:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8e72…5c72 sports 73 markets active 0h ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$907 (-3%) realized −$736 · open −$171
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate52%33W / 31L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$364per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$91est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$1,424now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$229
7 days−$658
14 days−$657
30 days−$657
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% −$1,269
other 30% +$151
sports 18% −$205
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -19.9% -27.5% 30% 26% -23.4%
≤30d 28 -19.2% -26.9% 32% 25% -21.1%
≤90d 36 -12.3% -20.7% 42% 33% -30.9%
all 64 -9.7% -18.3% 52% 23% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.3% 23% -13.7%
10% -26.1% 23% -22.0%
15% -33.3% 17% -29.5%
20% -39.8% 12% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$88 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$1,424
Realized−$736
Unrealized−$171
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses33 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$91
Open positions7
Markets (closed)64 / 73
History coverage146d
Avg bet$364
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $700 $664 −$36 (-5%)
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Brazil 48¢ 82¢ $200 $342 +$142 (+71%)
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Morocco 50¢ 32¢ $435 $284 −$151 (-35%)
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ 46¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Morocco (-3.5) Morocco 12¢ $110 $35 −$75 (-68%)
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 0 Haiti? Yes 14¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 0 Haiti? Yes 17¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 24 $225 −$119 -53%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $204 +$402 +197%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $195 −$76 -39%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 24 $159 −$105 -66%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? Jun 24 $229 −$166 -72%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 24 $200 −$118 -59%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $205 −$47 -23%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $212 −$212 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $138 −$135 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $102 −$27 -26%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $304 +$251 +83%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $102 +$80 +79%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $51 −$18 -35%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $5 $0 +3%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $5 +$2 +47%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 21 $575 −$195 -34%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $20 +$10 +51%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $749 −$66 -9%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 −$41 -81%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $51 −$19 -36%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $25 −$10 -40%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $76 +$68 +90%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $76 −$75 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $76 −$75 -99%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 18 $163 +$141 +87%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? Jun 15 $850 +$1 +0%
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 5.5 May 15 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 May 4-10? May 12 $99 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET May 09 $21 +$27 +129%
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? May 09 $870 −$870 -100%
Based FDV above $50M one day after launch? Apr 19 $36 +$14 +39%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on March 26? Apr 19 $50 +$36 +73%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 19 $81 +$19 +24%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on March 26? Apr 19 $100 +$29 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Mar 25 $150 +$8 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Mar 25 $30 −$30 -98%
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes Mar 25 $25 −$25 -100%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by February 28? Mar 25 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 February 16-22? Mar 25 $75 $0 +0%
Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch? Mar 25 $30 +$10 +34%
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? Mar 25 $83 +$7 +8%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of February? Mar 25 $698 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 February 16-22? Feb 21 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 17? Feb 20 $4,600 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 16? Feb 17 $94 −$42 -45%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 16? Feb 17 $2,900 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 17? Feb 17 $1,357 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 17? Feb 17 $397 +$3 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) SELL Morocco 12¢ $105 0m
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Morocco $21 19m
Spread: Morocco (-3.5) BUY Morocco $10 20m
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 21¢ $36 20m
Spread: Morocco (-3.5) BUY Morocco 17¢ $41 57m
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Morocco 29¢ $51 57m
Spread: Morocco (-3.5) BUY Morocco 17¢ $10 58m
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Morocco 29¢ $51 58m
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 50¢ $102 59m
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 48¢ $203 1h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $102 1h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 59¢ $304 1h
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 1h
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Morocco 37¢ $102 1h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) SELL Bosnia and Herzegovina 30¢ $0 2h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) SELL Bosnia and Herzegovina 30¢ $70 2h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) SELL Bosnia and Herzegovina 30¢ $49 2h
Spread: Morocco (-3.5) BUY Morocco 21¢ $51 2h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 48¢ $195 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL Yes $54 2h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? SELL Yes $63 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? SELL Yes $82 2h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 13¢ $158 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 33¢ $204 3h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 16¢ $205 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY Yes $200 5h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY Yes 13¢ $159 5h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? BUY Yes $106 5h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? BUY Yes $123 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,424.32 · official $1,424.32 (match) · 230 history records