Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:44:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
8E 0x8e6f…cb64 sports 184 markets active 1h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$115 (-2%) realized −$120 · open +$5
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate41%73W / 106L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$115est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$209now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$90
7 days−$521
14 days−$369
30 days−$359
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$127
other 3% −$63
weather 1% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 106 -42.9% -48.3% 26% 26% -20.7%
≤30d 124 -28.4% -35.2% 34% 33% -16.7%
≤90d 179 -15.0% -23.1% 41% 40% -12.4%
all 179 -15.0% -23.1% 41% 40% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.1% 40% -12.4%
10% -30.4% 39% -20.8%
15% -37.1% 36% -28.5%
20% -43.3% 31% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -52% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$23 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$209
Realized−$120
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses73 / 106
Est. fees paid−$115
Open positions5
Markets (closed)179 / 184
History coverage54d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 179 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 53¢ 66¢ $76 $95 +$19 (+25%)
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Over 56¢ 64¢ $48 $54 +$6 (+13%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Yes 55¢ 45¢ $50 $41 −$9 (-18%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Yes 22¢ 12¢ $25 $14 −$11 (-44%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $50 +$46 +93%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $51 +$37 +73%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $50 −$49 -98%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
Senegal to score first vs. France? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $56 +$48 +86%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $41 −$40 -99%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $50 −$49 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $20 +$25 +121%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $51 −$28 -56%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $51 +$53 +105%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $29 −$29 -98%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $59 −$58 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $68 +$71 +105%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $150 +$266 +177%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $51 −$4 -8%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $64 +$49 +76%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $65 −$64 -99%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $41 −$40 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $51 +$13 +26%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $20 +$31 +150%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 11.5 Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $41 +$30 +73%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $101 +$71 +70%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $102 −$101 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Game Handicap: GAL (-1.5) vs Misa Esports (+1.5) Jun 13 $101 +$71 +70%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $61 +$48 +79%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $61 +$11 +19%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $61 +$59 +97%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $61 +$48 +79%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $65 −$64 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $61 −$60 -99%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $25 −$25 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $101 −$7 -7%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $28 −$27 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $75 +$55 +73%
Ilkley: Tatiana Prozorova vs Sinja Kraus Jun 11 $16 $0 -2%
HSBC Championships: Jaqueline Cristian vs Katie Boulter Jun 11 $10 $0 -0%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $73 −$72 -99%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids (BO3) - Esports World Cup South Ame Jun 11 $26 −$25 -98%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $40 +$58 +145%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Sta Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 56¢ $49 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $51 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $77 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 22¢ $26 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 BUY Over $31 16h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 100¢ $96 16h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 54¢ $51 17h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 48¢ $50 18h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 53¢ $51 19h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 51¢ $50 19h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 57¢ $51 19h
Senegal to score first vs. France? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 21h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 26h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 56¢ $41 38h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 SELL Over $1 38h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs SELL Colorado Rockies 79¢ $31 39h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs SELL Colorado Rockies 35¢ $14 39h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 53¢ $56 39h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 25¢ $20 40h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 25¢ $22 40h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 48¢ $51 43h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 48¢ $50 45h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 55¢ $51 45h
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 48¢ $29 2d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner BUY Solary 54¢ $59 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 84¢ $140 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 40¢ $68 2d
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) SELL Sweden 99¢ $275 2d
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) SELL Sweden 50¢ $142 2d
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) BUY Sweden 26¢ $150 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $209.33 · official $209.33 (match) · 393 history records