Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:58:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
8E 0x8e69…1c62 crypto 40 markets active 0h ago coverage 61d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this crypto specialistFresh edge
Total PnL −$27 (-5%) realized −$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate55%22W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$109
7 days+$109
14 days+$109
30 days+$109
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$79
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +51.5% +37.1% 62% 62% +11.9%
≤30d 26 +51.5% +37.1% 62% 62% +11.9%
≤90d 40 +22.7% +11.0% 55% 52% +4.0%
all 40 +22.7% +11.0% 55% 52% +4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.0% 52% +4.0%
10% +0.4% 50% -6.0%
15% -9.3% 40% -15.1%
20% -18.2% 38% -23.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late +75% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$12 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses22 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage61d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 28 $6 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 28 $1 +$4 +374%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 28 $2 +$9 +432%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 28 $7 +$4 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 28 $6 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 28 $22 +$15 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 27 $1 +$1 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$18 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 27 $21 +$30 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 27 $21 −$5 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 27 $21 +$27 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 27 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 27 $52 +$87 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 27 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 27 $31 +$9 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 27 $21 +$35 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 27 $21 +$19 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 27 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 27 $104 −$70 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 27 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 27 $11 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 02 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 02 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 02 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 02 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 01 $5 +$4 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 01 $1 $0 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 01 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 01 $6 +$3 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Apr 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Apr 27 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Apr 27 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Apr 27 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Apr 27 $2 −$2 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $6 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $12 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $6 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $22 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Up 32¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $139 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 17¢ $34 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $104 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.00 · official $8.00 (match) · 89 history records