Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:01:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
8E 0x8e69…db67 sports 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$124 (+35%) realized +$121 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +76% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +53% what you keep after slip
Net edge+53%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% +$131
crypto 29% +$132
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+59.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +76.4% +59.6% 60% 60% +69.9%
≤30d 5 +76.4% +59.6% 60% 60% +69.9%
≤90d 5 +76.4% +59.6% 60% 60% +69.9%
all 5 +76.4% +59.6% 60% 60% +69.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +59.6% 60% +69.9%
10% +44.3% 60% +53.6%
15% +30.4% 60% +38.8%
20% +17.6% 60% +25.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +88% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +76% · $-wt +88% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$119 vs −$48 · ×2.46 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.69 per $1 lost it wins $3.69
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized+$121
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage2d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 47¢ 50¢ $49 $51 +$3 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $50 +$144 +287%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $50 −$48 -97%
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Jun 27 $50 −$48 -96%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $50 +$81 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 26? Jun 26 $100 +$132 +132%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $50 1h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $50 20h
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $50 20h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $50 20h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $50 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 26? BUY Up 41¢ $100 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.32 · official $51.32 (match) · 9 history records