Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:58:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8e66…4e16 crypto 49 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$25 (-20%) realized −$18 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate38%18W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$14
14 days−$22
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 68% −$21
crypto 32% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-36.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -34.3% -40.6% 45% 36% -28.2%
≤30d 47 -29.2% -36.0% 38% 36% -27.9%
≤90d 47 -29.2% -36.0% 38% 36% -27.9%
all 47 -29.2% -36.0% 38% 36% -27.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.0% 36% -27.9%
10% -42.1% 36% -34.8%
15% -47.7% 30% -41.1%
20% -52.8% 30% -46.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$18
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses18 / 29
Open positions2
Markets (closed)47 / 49
History coverage14d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? No 67¢ 95¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+42%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? No 61¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 −$5 -61%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 +$2 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $7 +$5 +73%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 +$3 +34%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 15 $7 −$7 -99%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $11 +$3 +32%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 03 $2 +$2 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 03 $1 +$1 +114%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 03 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 03 $1 +$1 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 02 $1 +$1 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 02 $1 +$1 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 02 $1 +$2 +146%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 02 $1 +$1 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 02 $1 +$2 +173%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 02 $1 +$1 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 02 $1 +$3 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 02 $1 +$1 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 02 $1 +$1 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? SELL No 98¢ $10 9m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? SELL No 69¢ $3 59m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? SELL No 23¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 67¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? SELL No 98¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 65¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 79¢ $7 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? BUY No 57¢ $7 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY No 61¢ $7 9h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? SELL No 98¢ $7 11h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? SELL No 98¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $10 13h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 80¢ $7 13h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? BUY No 70¢ $7 15h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 56¢ $7 15h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 15? BUY No 73¢ $7 16h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? SELL No 98¢ $5 17h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? SELL No 97¢ $9 17h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 73¢ $8 17h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? BUY No 65¢ $4 18h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? BUY No 77¢ $7 19h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? SELL No 60¢ $3 42h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? BUY No 59¢ $3 42h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? SELL Yes 41¢ $3 43h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 43¢ $3 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 13d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.43 · official $0.01 (match) · 77 history records