Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T08:59:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8E
0x8e64…2604
other · 213 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$67 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$66 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$13
Realized−$66
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses64 / 146
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)210 / 213
History coverage154d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%
Chart Positions 3 History 210 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days−$97
14 days−$110
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Yes 33¢ 30¢ $8 $8 −$1 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 2? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 3? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on May 5? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 5? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 16? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 15? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on May 2? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 1? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 4? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on May 4? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 29? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 23? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 6? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 2? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 27? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 6? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 +$14 +233%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $16 +$9 +56%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 8? Jun 07 $17 −$9 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 8? Jun 07 $8 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $81 −$81 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $10 +$10 +100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 5? Jun 04 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 5? Jun 04 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 4? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 4? Jun 03 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 3? Jun 02 $14 −$4 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 3? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 2? Jun 02 $7 −$7 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 2? Jun 01 $8 −$1 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 2? Jun 01 $11 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 1? Jun 01 $15 +$43 +281%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 1? Jun 01 $6 −$6 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on May 31? May 31 $6 +$7 +115%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on May 31? May 30 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 30? May 30 $5 −$4 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 30? May 30 $9 +$28 +313%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 29? May 29 $7 +$22 +341%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 29? May 29 $10 −$5 -51%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 28? May 28 $5 +$22 +411%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 28? May 28 $6 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 28? May 28 $3 +$6 +213%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $6 −$3 -56%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $2 $0 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 27? May 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $5 +$4 +70%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $2 +$1 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on May 25? May 25 $6 +$13 +203%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $1 −$1 -58%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 24 $5 −$4 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 24? May 24 $9 +$41 +454%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 23? May 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 18 to May 20, 2026? May 21 $1 −$1 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 21? May 21 $5 −$5 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 16? May 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 15? May 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on May 14? May 14 $7 +$13 +194%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 54% −$1
other 31% +$26
crypto 9% −$80
world 3% −$20
sports 3% +$12
economics 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 54m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 56m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 56m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? BUY Yes 31¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 9? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 4d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 4d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 4d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 4d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 8? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 8? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 5d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 8? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)+0.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -46.4% -51.5% 18% 18% -67.4%
≤30d 49 +0.6% -9.0% 33% 27% -14.1%
≤90d 159 -14.9% -23.0% 27% 21% -21.8%
all 210 +10.7% +0.2% 30% 26% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.2% 26% -14.9%
10% -9.4% 25% -23.1%
15% -18.1% 22% -30.5%
20% -26.2% 21% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.80 · official $12.80 (match) · 734 history records