Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T21:20:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
8E 0x8e60…282e other 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$24 · open −$19
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate63%12W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$267now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$7
14 days+$8
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$34
world 13% −$8
crypto 13% +$1
tech 13% $0
sports 8% −$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -12.5% -20.8% 54% 46% -8.1%
≤30d 17 -6.7% -15.6% 65% 41% -8.8%
≤90d 19 -6.2% -15.1% 63% 37% -9.4%
all 19 -6.2% -15.1% 63% 37% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 37% -9.4%
10% -23.2% 37% -18.0%
15% -30.6% 32% -25.9%
20% -37.4% 21% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 44% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$8 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$267
Realized+$24
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses12 / 7
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions13
Markets (closed)19 / 32
History coverage35d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 0 Ghana? No 85¢ 80¢ $71 $66 −$4 (-6%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? No 74¢ 74¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-1%)
Croatia vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? No 53¢ 42¢ $33 $27 −$7 (-20%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? No 46¢ 48¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+5%)
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 1 Ghana? No 91¢ 92¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Croatia 28¢ 23¢ $24 $19 −$4 (-18%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? No 84¢ 86¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+2%)
Algeria leading at halftime? No 80¢ 78¢ $17 $16 −$0 (-2%)
Croatia leading at halftime? No 62¢ 68¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+10%)
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? No 70¢ 66¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-5%)
Algeria vs. Austria: Draw at halftime? No 44¢ 44¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Yes 46¢ 31¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-33%)
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Over 39¢ 26¢ $8 $5 −$3 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 27 $14 +$7 +52%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Belgium? Jun 27 $39 +$3 +7%
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? Jun 27 $16 +$5 +34%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $28 +$14 +52%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $14 +$7 +55%
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? Jun 27 $15 +$6 +36%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $10 +$11 +101%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Draw at halftime? Jun 26 $12 −$12 -99%
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) Jun 26 $10 −$9 -98%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $9 −$9 -98%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $6 −$5 -98%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? Jun 26 $287 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $286 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $278 $0 +0%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $5 +$2 +48%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 10 $283 $0 +0%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 26 $291 −$8 -3%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 23? May 23 $290 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 1 Ghana? BUY No 91¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 0 Ghana? BUY No 85¢ $35 1h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 28¢ $12 1h
Croatia leading at halftime? BUY No 62¢ $13 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? BUY No 53¢ $11 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 46¢ $20 1h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 28¢ $12 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 84¢ $18 1h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY No 70¢ $15 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? BUY No 53¢ $23 1h
Algeria leading at halftime? BUY No 80¢ $17 1h
Algeria vs. Austria: Draw at halftime? BUY No 44¢ $9 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 74¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 0 Ghana? BUY No 85¢ $35 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $10 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $8 1h
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? BUY No 74¢ $16 25h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Draw at halftime? BUY No 55¢ $12 25h
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 15¢ $6 25h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 65¢ $28 25h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $10 25h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $9 25h
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 15¢ $3 25h
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? BUY No 73¢ $15 25h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 64¢ $14 25h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Belgium? BUY No 93¢ $39 25h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $10 25h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 26¢ $6 25h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 65¢ $14 25h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $287 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $267.19 · official $267.19 (match) · 50 history records