Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:16:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
8E 0x8e5f…ab59 crypto 134 markets active 0h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$81 (+7%) realized +$81 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate73%98W / 36L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$82
7 days+$82
14 days+$82
30 days+$82
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% +$78
sports 4% +$5
other 2% −$5
politics 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+0.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 129 +10.5% -0.1% 73% 60% -2.3%
≤30d 134 +10.7% +0.2% 73% 60% -2.4%
≤90d 134 +10.7% +0.2% 73% 60% -2.4%
all 134 +10.7% +0.2% 73% 60% -2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.2% 60% -2.4%
10% -9.4% 46% -11.8%
15% -18.2% 31% -20.3%
20% -26.2% 19% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$81
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses98 / 36
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)134 / 134
History coverage36d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 134 Trades
no open positions (23 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $17 +$4 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$4 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $22 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$4 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$6 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $17 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $36 −$20 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$6 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$5 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$7 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$4 -83%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$6 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $10 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $6 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $2 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $17 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $0 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 49m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 356 history records