Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:24:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
8E 0x8e5e…0381 sports 656 markets active 2h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,988 (-7%) realized −$2,981 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate50%328W / 324L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Fees−$359est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13,325
7 days−$12,882
14 days−$11,604
30 days−$10,060
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$2,894
crypto 7% −$182
other 4% −$404
world 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 299 -82.7% -84.4% 10% 10% -73.8%
≤30d 362 -59.4% -63.3% 25% 24% -47.1%
≤90d 516 -21.6% -29.1% 46% 45% -23.9%
all 652 -8.7% -17.4% 50% 49% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 49% -17.1%
10% -25.3% 45% -25.0%
15% -32.5% 35% -32.2%
20% -39.1% 27% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +54% → late -71% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$50 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized−$2,981
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses328 / 324
Est. fees paid−$359
Open positions3
Markets (closed)652 / 656
History coverage154d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 652 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $92 −$90 -98%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 21 $60 +$38 +63%
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov (Featherw Jun 21 $9 −$9 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main Jun 21 $258 +$102 +40%
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 20 $149 −$148 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh Jun 20 $101 +$48 +48%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Everton FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $27 −$27 -100%
LoL: Oh My God vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $120 −$120 -100%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Los Ratones (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 20 $43 −$43 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 20 $342 −$342 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Ryan Spann vs. Marcus Buchecha (Heavyweight, Prelims) Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Roman Dolidze vs. Christian Leroy Duncan (Middleweigh Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
LoL: Ici Japon Corp. Esport vs TLN Pirates (BO1) - LFL Invitational Gr Jun 20 $48 −$48 -100%
Valorant: Team Envy vs Evil Geniuses - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $40 −$40 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs Sentinels - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $164 −$164 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 20 $202 −$202 -100%
AHL: Chicago Wolves vs. Colorado Eagles Jun 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Nets vs. Lakers Jun 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Real Oviedo vs. Athletic Club end in a draw? Jun 20 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 20 $32 −$32 -100%
LoL: Joblife vs Ici Japon Corp. Esport (BO1) - LFL Regular Season Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 20 $39 −$39 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $111 −$111 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 20 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Club Tijuana vs. Club Santos Laguna end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Ultra Prime vs Oh My God - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Mason Jones vs. Axel Sola (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Sentinels - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Team Liquid (BO3) - LCS Lock In Group Stage Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 20 $41 +$14 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs DN SOOPers - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: French Flair vs Skillcamp Esport (BO1) - LFL Invitational Souper Jun 20 $28 +$16 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: SK Gaming vs Karmine Corp (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Weibo Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Hornets vs. Suns Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Kyoji Horiguchi 38¢ $92 1h
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 98¢ $98 1h
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 59¢ $60 1h
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma BUY Hyder Amil 32¢ $51 2h
UFC Fight Night: Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov (Featherw BUY Melsik Baghdasaryan 20¢ $9 2h
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main SELL Vinicius Oliveira 100¢ $360 2h
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main BUY Vinicius Oliveira 71¢ $258 3h
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Andre Lima 77¢ $149 3h
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh SELL Bia Mesquita 99¢ $149 4h
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh BUY Bia Mesquita 66¢ $101 4h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $379 5h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $159 5h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $108 6h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 59¢ $65 7h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 79¢ $302 7h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $101 7h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 100¢ $467 8h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 61¢ $290 9h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 60¢ $143 9h
Netherlands leading at halftime? SELL Yes 80¢ $105 10h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 73¢ $133 10h
Netherlands leading at halftime? BUY Yes 43¢ $58 10h
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 10h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 11h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 11h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $61 26h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $217 26h
Brazil leading at halftime? SELL Yes 95¢ $260 26h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 78¢ $171 26h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 81¢ $50 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.92 · official $22.92 (match) · 1577 history records