Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:25:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8e5b…c2db world 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 482d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate41%18W / 26L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% +$2
other 22% $0
politics 9% $0
sports 7% +$2
crypto 3% $0
tech 3% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.0% -9.5% 17% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 18 +0.5% -9.1% 39% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 18 +0.5% -9.1% 39% 0% -9.2%
all 44 -1.6% -11.0% 41% 2% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 2% -9.0%
10% -19.5% 0% -17.7%
15% -27.3% 0% -25.6%
20% -34.4% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.02 per $1 lost it wins $4.02
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

482d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses18 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage482d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 96¢ 95¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $4 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $17 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $33 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $30 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $33 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $7 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $29 $0 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $33 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $32 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $17 +$1 +4%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $32 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $30 $0 -1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 11 $29 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $29 +$1 +5%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $32 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $11 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $7 $0 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal before July? Dec 09 $2 $0 +4%
Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 Dec 09 $2 $0 -2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jun 27 $12 $0 +2%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Jun 24 $2 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +3%
Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? May 22 $12 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? May 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Minnesota Vikings? May 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? May 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? May 19 $5 $0 -0%
Will HNP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on June 30? May 17 $12 $0 -2%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Apr 13 $1 $0 -2%
Will Ludvig Aberg win The 2025 Masters? Apr 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Apr 07 $3 $0 +0%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Apr 05 $17 $0 +0%
Will Another team win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 05 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Apr 03 $17 $0 +0%
Will Tennessee win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 30 $17 $0 -0%
2025 March hottest on record? Mar 30 $17 $0 +0%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 29 $17 $0 +0%
Eric Adams out as NYC mayor by March 31? Mar 27 $17 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 27 $17 $0 +0%
Greens win over 15% of vote in German election? Mar 20 $17 $0 +1%
Delaware vs. Charleston Mar 03 $15 +$2 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $30 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 3h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 4h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $17 9h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $17 11h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 49¢ $8 23h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 49¢ $25 23h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 49¢ $33 25h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $30 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $30 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $33 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 83¢ $33 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $15 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $15 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $30 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $7 8d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $7 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $30 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $28 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $1 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $33 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $33 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $32 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $32 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 27¢ $18 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 26¢ $3 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 26¢ $3 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 26¢ $11 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $32 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $32 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.51 · official $29.51 (match) · 119 history records