Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:59:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8e57…53b3 crypto 192 markets active 1h ago coverage 276d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,224 (-15%) realized −$1,143 · open −$81
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate29%54W / 130L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$435now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,303
7 days−$1,295
14 days−$1,295
30 days−$1,371
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% +$524
politics 11% −$777
other 8% −$336
economics 4% −$318
world 3% −$243
weather 2% −$69
tech 2% −$123
culture 2% −$126
sports 0% −$14
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-37.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 140 -55.2% -59.5% 16% 16% -26.2%
≤30d 172 -37.4% -43.3% 27% 26% -26.3%
≤90d 184 -30.6% -37.2% 29% 28% -25.9%
all 184 -30.6% -37.2% 29% 28% -25.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.2% 28% -25.9%
10% -43.2% 27% -33.0%
15% -48.7% 24% -39.4%
20% -53.7% 22% -45.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$90 vs −$48 · ×1.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

276d coverage
Net worth$435
Realized−$1,143
Unrealized−$81
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses54 / 130
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)184 / 192
History coverage276d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 184 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $102 $126 +$24 (+24%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $210 $105 −$105 (-50%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $105 $105 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $95 $97 +$2 (+2%)
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Yes 73¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-34%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 48¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Yes 11¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 18 $13 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 18 $13 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 18 $13 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 18 $13 +$21 +167%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 17 $12 +$17 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$19 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 17 $62 +$53 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 17? Jun 17 $257 −$257 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $320 −$320 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $31 +$27 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$4 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $286 −$286 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $316 +$982 +310%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$4 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $16 +$37 +232%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$8 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $53 +$105 +197%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $16 +$46 +289%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$6 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 10¢ $64 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $6 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 8¢ $35 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $6 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $62 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $6 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $434.71 · official $434.71 (match) · 529 history records