Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:56:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8e52…9e60 crypto 48 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$73 (+5%) realized +$73 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate85%41W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days−$4
14 days+$81
30 days+$81
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% +$80
other 12% +$86
world 5% −$70
sports 1% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)+8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +18.3% +7.1% 87% 11% -9.8%
≤30d 48 +20.1% +8.6% 85% 15% -4.4%
≤90d 48 +20.1% +8.6% 85% 15% -4.4%
all 48 +20.1% +8.6% 85% 15% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.6% 15% -4.4%
10% -1.8% 10% -13.6%
15% -11.2% 6% -21.9%
20% -19.9% 6% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +42% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$23 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$73
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses41 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)48 / 48
History coverage9d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 48 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 21 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 21 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 21 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 21 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 21 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 21 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 21 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 21 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 21 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 21 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 21 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 21 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 21 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 21 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 21 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 21 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 21 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 21 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 21 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 21 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 21 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 18 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$3 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$64 +1196%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $71 −$70 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $62 +$80 +129%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $59 −$57 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $58 +$63 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 102 history records