Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:13:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
8E 0x8e4f…9ddb sports 213 markets active 14h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$50 (+5%) realized +$50 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%79W / 134L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$18
14 days+$10
30 days+$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +19.8% +8.4% 39% 39% +8.2%
≤30d 174 +7.4% -2.8% 36% 36% -2.8%
≤90d 213 +7.0% -3.1% 37% 37% -7.0%
all 213 +7.0% -3.1% 37% 37% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.1% 37% -7.0%
10% -12.4% 33% -15.9%
15% -20.9% 32% -24.1%
20% -28.6% 32% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×1.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$50
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses79 / 134
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)213 / 213
History coverage38d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 213 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $3 −$2 -66%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $3 $0 -9%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $3 +$4 +129%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $3 −$2 -61%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $3 −$2 -60%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $3 −$2 -78%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 15 $3 −$2 -82%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $3 +$5 +172%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $3 +$5 +180%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $3 +$4 +124%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $3 +$4 +129%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $3 −$2 -76%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $3 +$4 +146%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $3 +$4 +124%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $3 −$2 -73%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $3 +$4 +140%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $3 −$2 -69%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $3 −$2 -72%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $3 +$4 +129%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $3 −$2 -63%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $3 $0 -6%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 12 $3 $0 -6%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $3 −$2 -68%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $3 −$2 -75%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $3 −$2 -75%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $3 +$4 +152%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $3 +$4 +152%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 11 $3 +$4 +129%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $3 −$1 -48%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $3 −$3 -95%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $3 −$1 -34%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 10 $3 +$4 +140%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $3 −$2 -73%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $3 −$2 -80%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $3 −$2 -74%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $3 −$2 -73%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 08 $3 −$2 -80%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $3 +$5 +183%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $3 −$2 -70%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 07 $3 −$2 -80%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 07 $3 −$2 -72%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 07 $3 −$2 -69%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 07 $3 $0 -3%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 07 $3 $0 -6%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $3 −$2 -80%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $3 −$2 -85%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 06 $3 +$4 +134%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 06 $3 −$2 -87%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 06 $3 +$4 +129%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 06 $3 −$1 -27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks SELL Los Angeles Angels 16¢ $1 13h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Tampa Bay Rays 36¢ $3 14h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 38¢ $3 15h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs SELL Colorado Rockies 14¢ $1 15h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 44¢ $3 15h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals SELL San Diego Padres 17¢ $1 16h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals SELL Kansas City Royals 10¢ $1 16h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 34¢ $3 17h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Minnesota Twins 43¢ $3 17h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies SELL Miami Marlins 7¢ $1 17h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 41¢ $3 17h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 44¢ $3 18h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 36¢ $3 18h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 36¢ $3 46h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 35¢ $3 47h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY San Diego Padres 44¢ $3 47h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 43¢ $3 2d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics SELL Colorado Rockies 11¢ $1 2d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 43¢ $3 2d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 40¢ $3 2d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Chicago White Sox 10¢ $1 2d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 44¢ $3 2d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 35¢ $3 2d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics SELL Colorado Rockies 11¢ $1 3d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins SELL St. Louis Cardinals 13¢ $1 3d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 34¢ $3 3d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 41¢ $3 3d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Philadelphia Phillies 12¢ $1 3d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 44¢ $3 3d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Chicago White Sox 41¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 429 history records