Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:11:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8E 0x8e4f…4594 world 144 markets active 0h ago coverage 73d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 72d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$9,920 (+22%) realized +$9,656 · open +$264
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate56%65W / 51L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$308per market
Trades / day46.8pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$4,977now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$318
7 days+$6,382
14 days+$7,528
30 days+$9,315
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 85% +$10,278
other 7% −$148
finance 6% −$82
sports 2% −$154
politics 1% −$156
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -4.5% -13.6% 49% 36% +29.9%
≤30d 74 +2.1% -7.6% 50% 35% +22.0%
≤90d 116 +3.6% -6.3% 56% 35% +14.4%
all 116 +3.6% -6.3% 56% 35% +14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.3% 35% +14.4%
10% ← realistic here -15.2% 27% +3.5%
15% -23.4% 17% -6.5%
20% -30.9% 13% -15.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +15% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
12.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$192 vs −$60 · ×3.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.18 per $1 lost it wins $4.18
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$4,977
Realized+$9,656
Unrealized+$264
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses65 / 51
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions28
Markets (closed)116 / 144
History coverage73d ⚠
Avg bet$308
Trades / day46.8
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 28 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? Yes 48¢ 60¢ $2,258 $2,867 +$609 (+27%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 10¢ 10¢ $443 $455 +$12 (+3%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $339 $341 +$2 (+1%)
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by December 31? Yes 38¢ 48¢ $214 $272 +$57 (+27%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $205 $199 −$6 (-3%)
Ebola case in the US by June 30? Yes 13¢ 6¢ $321 $143 −$178 (-55%)
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? Yes 34¢ 32¢ $110 $106 −$3 (-3%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 30¢ 32¢ $99 $105 +$6 (+6%)
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $79 $84 +$5 (+7%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? Yes 24¢ 26¢ $74 $82 +$8 (+11%)
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by June 30? Yes 24¢ 15¢ $101 $63 −$37 (-37%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Yes 1¢ 4¢ $16 $46 +$31 (+198%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $51 $44 −$8 (-15%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Yes 9¢ 3¢ $135 $39 −$96 (-71%)
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by September 30? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $32 $35 +$3 (+8%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $24 $21 −$2 (-10%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Yes 26¢ 28¢ $18 $20 +$2 (+10%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 27¢ 15¢ $27 $15 −$12 (-44%)
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by December 31, 2026? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+10%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $23 $13 −$10 (-42%)
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 19? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $16 $4 −$12 (-74%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-40%)
Will Russia enter Sumy by December 31, 2026? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? No 15¢ 0¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Jun 19 $234 −$24 -10%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 18 $13 −$7 -52%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 18 $12 +$4 +30%
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $44 +$13 +30%
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 17 $479 −$310 -65%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? Jun 17 $124 +$69 +55%
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? Jun 17 $29 −$9 -31%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 17 $92 −$2 -2%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Trump praise Dana White by June 30? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $129 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Jun 16 $1,431 +$132 +9%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $160 −$37 -23%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $49 −$49 -100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $36 +$2 +6%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $45 +$10 +23%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $68 +$30 +44%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 16 $101 +$63 +62%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $71 −$23 -33%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $31 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $21 −$9 -42%
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $4 −$1 -18%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $1,127 −$1,127 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 14 $1,813 +$3,546 +196%
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? Jun 14 $16 $0 +1%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? Jun 14 $211 −$43 -21%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $1,343 +$688 +51%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $11 +$1 +6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $849 +$20 +2%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $91 −$2 -2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 13 $1,307 +$358 +27%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $2,297 +$2,136 +93%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Jun 13 $1,135 +$339 +30%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $492 +$471 +96%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 13 $359 +$165 +46%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $358 +$55 +15%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $518 +$758 +146%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $253 +$388 +153%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 05 $344 +$133 +39%
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 03 $118 +$72 +61%
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? Jun 01 $11 −$6 -54%
Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May Jun 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? Jun 01 $95 −$7 -7%
Will 60-79 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24? Jun 01 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Russia enter Moskovka by May 31? Jun 01 $10 −$7 -70%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? Jun 01 $587 −$1 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? Jun 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? SELL Yes 70¢ $39 2m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? SELL Yes 70¢ $89 2m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? SELL Yes 70¢ $71 2m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? SELL Yes 70¢ $10 2m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 29¢ $45 14m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 30¢ $43 15m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 31¢ $5 16m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 31¢ $2 17m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 31¢ $4 17m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 31¢ $1 17m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 37¢ $148 26m
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $28 39m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 28¢ $56 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 29¢ $58 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? BUY Yes 78¢ $234 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $171 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes 13¢ $48 3h
Ebola case in the US by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 3h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes 12¢ $17 3h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes 12¢ $153 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 15¢ $24 5h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes 11¢ $2 5h
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $124 5h
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 61¢ $34 5h
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 61¢ $5 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 15¢ $240 6h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $87 8h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 1¢ $16 8h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $6 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,976.99 · official $4,977.00 (match) · 3500 history records