Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:00:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8e4f…e9cd politics 267 markets active 7d ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-0%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate27%73W / 193L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 33% −$5
sports 30% −$12
other 24% −$6
crypto 9% −$1
world 3% −$1
economics 2% $0
culture 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 30 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 139 -0.2% -9.7% 14% 0% -10.1%
all 266 -1.3% -10.7% 27% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 0% -10.0%
10% -19.3% 0% -18.6%
15% -27.1% 0% -26.5%
20% -34.2% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses73 / 193
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)266 / 267
History coverage134d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 266 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $26 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $51 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $10 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $27 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $8 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $31 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 08 $18 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $35 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $20 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $19 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $16 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $27 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $27 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $23 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $6 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Jun 07 $52 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $8 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $11 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $21 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $10 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $10 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 22 $9 $0 -3%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $9 $0 -0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele May 18 $21 $0 -2%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? May 18 $17 −$1 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 18 $5 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $75 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $25 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $16 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $27 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $27 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $9 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 18 $19 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 17 $10 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $7 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $28 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $14 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $39 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? May 17 $23 $0 -1%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $36 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $59 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $24 −$1 -3%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 17 $28 $0 -1%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $28 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $27 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $18 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 16 $34 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $62 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 16 $10 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 6d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $6 6d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $6 6d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 94¢ $7 6d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 94¢ $7 8d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 8d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 8d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $5 8d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $5 8d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $8 8d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $8 8d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 8d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 8d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $8 8d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $8 8d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $10 8d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 9d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $7 9d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $7 9d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $5 9d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $5 9d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $7 9d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $7 9d
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 9d
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 9d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $7 9d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $7 9d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $9 9d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $9 9d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $6 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.00 · official $10.00 (match) · 1241 history records