trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 38¢ | 38¢ | $10 | $10 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 53¢ | 52¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 81¢ | 80¢ | $9 | $9 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 38¢ | 32¢ | $9 | $7 | −$1 (-16%) |
| Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 46¢ | 47¢ | $7 | $7 | +$0 (+2%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $9 | +$9 | +103% |
| Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score in Second Half | Jun 13 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada 1st Half O/U 0.5 | Jun 13 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 1.5 | Jun 13 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? | Jun 13 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $9 | −$9 | -100% |
| Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score | Jun 12 | $4 | +$5 | +112% |
| Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 12 | $10 | +$18 | +183% |
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 12 | $12 | +$2 | +14% |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 12 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 12 | $24 | −$2 | -8% |
| Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? | Jun 12 | $8 | +$2 | +19% |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 07 | $25 | −$2 | -6% |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? | Jun 06 | $48 | −$48 | -100% |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? | May 30 | $99 | −$5 | -5% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January? | May 30 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? | Jan 29 | $100 | −$97 | -97% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 14 | -13.2% | -21.5% | 43% | 36% | -25.5% |
| ≤30d | 16 | -18.1% | -25.9% | 38% | 31% | -22.1% |
| ≤90d | 16 | -18.1% | -25.9% | 38% | 31% | -22.1% |
| all | 17 | -22.7% | -30.1% | 35% | 29% | -42.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -30.1% | 29% | -42.3% |
| 10% | -36.8% | 18% | -47.9% |
| 15% | -42.9% | 18% | -52.9% |
| 20% | -48.5% | 18% | -57.5% |