Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:06:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8e4e…6c9c crypto 531 markets active 9h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,000 (-4%) realized −$1,000 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate77%408W / 123L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day20.8pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$20
14 days−$24
30 days−$434
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$1,200
sports 8% −$41
weather 0% −$29
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 160 +0.9% -8.7% 97% 4% -9.8%
≤30d 298 -0.5% -9.9% 91% 7% -11.9%
≤90d 531 -0.9% -10.4% 77% 16% -14.6%
all 531 -0.9% -10.4% 77% 16% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.4% 16% -14.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.9% 9% -22.8%
15% -26.8% 7% -30.2%
20% -33.9% 5% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$25 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,000
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses408 / 123
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)531 / 531
History coverage84d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day20.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 531 Trades
no open positions (54 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $230 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 14 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 14 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 14 $100 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $230 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $200 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $6 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2038 history records