Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:30:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
8E 0x8e4d…2978 other 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$15 (+0%) realized +$18 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate83%29W / 6L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$169per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$1,246now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$11
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% +$6
other 41% +$9
world 8% −$1
politics 4% $0
crypto 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 13 -13.9% -22.1% 69% 8% -9.3%
≤90d 31 -8.9% -17.6% 84% 3% -9.2%
all 35 -7.9% -16.6% 83% 3% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 3% -9.2%
10% -24.6% 0% -17.9%
15% -31.9% 0% -25.8%
20% -38.6% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 80% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.98 per $1 lost it wins $4.98
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$1,246
Realized+$18
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses29 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)35 / 40
History coverage117d
Avg bet$169
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iran reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 100¢ 99¢ $399 $397 −$2 (-0%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 100¢ 99¢ $250 $248 −$1 (-0%)
Will New Zealand reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 100¢ 100¢ $201 $201 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jordan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 100¢ 100¢ $200 $199 −$0 (-0%)
Will Iraq reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 100¢ 100¢ $200 $199 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will White House post 120-139 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $1,199 +$1 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $48 +$9 +19%
Will Mikal Bridges win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 10 $798 +$1 +0%
Will Stephon Castle win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 08 $200 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz post 0-19 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $400 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $120 in May? Jun 01 $17 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in May? Jun 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? Jun 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $24 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 26 $251 −$1 -0%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: FORZE Esports vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - BetBoom May 26 $474 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 26 $699 +$1 +0%
Valorant: Joblife vs Barça eSports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Group D May 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 20 $490 +$10 +2%
Will BNB dip to $200 in April? May 01 $18 $0 +0%
Will Chainlink dip to $4 in April? May 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will Chainlink dip to $2 in April? May 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will BNB dip to $300 in April? May 01 $17 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $10 in April? May 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $20 in April? May 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in April? May 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will Chainlink reach $18 in April? May 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1,000 in April? May 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will Chainlink reach $20 in April? May 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Pilot" or "Crew" or "Staff" 5+ times during Monday new Apr 21 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Easter" or "Egg" during Monday news conference? Apr 21 $40 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "CIA" or "Ratcliffe" during Monday news conference? Apr 21 $43 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Equipment" during Monday news conference? Apr 21 $45 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Ayatollah" or "Khamenei" or "Khomeini" during Cabinet Apr 06 $148 $0 +0%
Will "Crack Cocaine" be said on the first Joe Rogan Experience episode Mar 26 $147 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $20 in February? Mar 24 $64 $0 +0%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026? Mar 24 $83 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? Feb 28 $77 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? Feb 26 $54 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 100¢ $399 1h
Will Jordan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 100¢ $200 1h
Will New Zealand reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 100¢ $201 1h
Will Iraq reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 100¢ $200 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 100¢ $250 1h
Will White House post 120-139 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,199 7d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $28 10d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $28 10d
Will Mikal Bridges win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL No 100¢ $799 12d
Will Stephon Castle win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL No 100¢ $69 14d
Will Stephon Castle win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL No 100¢ $101 14d
Will Stephon Castle win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL No 100¢ $30 14d
Will Stephon Castle win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No 100¢ $200 14d
Will Mikal Bridges win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No 100¢ $798 14d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under $1 26d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over $1 27d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: FORZE Esports vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - BetBoom BUY FORZE Esports $0 27d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: FORZE Esports vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - BetBoom BUY FORZE Esports $0 27d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 100¢ $250 27d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: FORZE Esports vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - BetBoom BUY FORZE Esports $0 27d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: FORZE Esports vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - BetBoom SELL Virtus.pro 100¢ $473 27d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: FORZE Esports vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - BetBoom BUY Virtus.pro 100¢ $64 27d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: FORZE Esports vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - BetBoom BUY Virtus.pro 100¢ $149 27d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: FORZE Esports vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - BetBoom BUY FORZE Esports $0 27d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over $1 27d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: FORZE Esports vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - BetBoom BUY Virtus.pro 99¢ $11 27d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: FORZE Esports vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - BetBoom BUY Virtus.pro 100¢ $100 27d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: FORZE Esports vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - BetBoom BUY Virtus.pro 100¢ $149 27d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $699 27d
Will Ted Cruz post 0-19 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $400 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,245.65 · official $1,245.65 (match) · 206 history records