Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:04:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8e4d…baa5 other 243 markets active 0h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$84 (-0%) realized −$84 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%9W / 234L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$224per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$19
14 days−$28
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$45
sports 20% −$19
politics 7% −$7
economics 7% −$7
culture 6% −$7
crypto 5% −$5
world 5% −$4
tech 1% −$1
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 73 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 178 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
all 243 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$84
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses9 / 234
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)243 / 243
History coverage133d
Avg bet$224
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 243 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $443 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $355 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $81 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 16 $193 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $608 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $126 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $439 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 15 $172 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $595 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $141 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $300 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $348 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $869 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $360 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $222 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $274 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $117 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $126 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $354 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $543 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $661 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $260 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $611 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 11 $297 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $556 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 11 $254 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $329 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $1,107 −$2 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $182 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $594 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $627 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $59 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $60 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 08 $358 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $242 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $257 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $343 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $293 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $339 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 05 $135 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $126 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $134 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $220 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $265 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $434 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $647 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $297 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 01 $131 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $408 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $54 4m
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $54 1h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $24 1h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $10 5h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $20 6h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $20 8h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $10 8h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $10 9h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $54 11h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $54 16h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $54 18h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $54 19h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $54 21h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $54 21h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $54 23h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $54 28h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $54 29h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $55 31h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $55 33h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $55 34h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 36h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $55 37h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $55 39h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $55 43h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $55 45h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $55 2d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $55 2d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $55 2d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $55 2d
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $55 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1400 history records