Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:09:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8e4b…ecd3 crypto 124 markets active 1h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$34 (+1%) realized +$35 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate26%32W / 91L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$73
7 days+$543
14 days+$543
30 days−$110
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% −$38
finance 25% +$88
other 12% −$72
politics 6% −$86
world 2% −$15
sports 1% +$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-29.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +51.9% +37.4% 30% 30% +90.2%
≤30d 26 -13.5% -21.7% 23% 15% -16.4%
≤90d 105 -21.0% -28.6% 28% 20% -10.6%
all 123 -21.6% -29.1% 26% 18% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.1% 18% -11.2%
10% -35.8% 15% -19.7%
15% -42.0% 13% -27.4%
20% -47.7% 12% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$14 · ×2.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized+$35
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses32 / 91
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)123 / 124
History coverage107d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 123 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $38 $37 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $109 −$22 -20%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $90 −$90 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 16 $27 +$63 +236%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5AM ET Jun 14 $101 +$574 +571%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 4AM ET Jun 14 $38 +$63 +163%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $43 −$5 -11%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $54 −$10 -19%
XRP Up or Down - May 26, 9AM ET May 27 $19 −$19 -100%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 26 $18 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3PM ET May 21 $217 −$217 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 20, 2PM ET May 21 $320 −$320 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1AM ET May 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump announce a Taiwan arms sales halt? May 20 $15 −$11 -78%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Xi Jinping by May 31, 2026? May 20 $94 −$36 -39%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 19, 2026? May 20 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11AM ET May 19 $16 −$16 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 19, 10AM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10AM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $51 −$3 -7%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $72 −$6 -8%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $52 −$4 -7%
XRP Up or Down - May 19, 9AM ET May 19 $11 +$1 +9%
XRP Up or Down - May 19, 7AM ET May 19 $31 +$19 +60%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET May 19 $49 +$42 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 19 $42 +$7 +17%
XRP Up or Down - May 19, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET May 19 $109 +$188 +173%
XRP Up or Down - May 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 19 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 4PM ET Apr 22 $139 −$139 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Apr 21 $66 −$66 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 21, 1PM ET Apr 21 $55 +$11 +19%
XRP Up or Down - April 21, 2PM ET Apr 21 $55 +$84 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 1? Apr 01 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 30 $287 +$17 +6%
Will Trump say "Chuck Norris" this week? (March 29) Mar 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 3AM ET Mar 30 $14 +$4 +27%
Will Jack Doherty be sentenced to less than 2 years in prison? Mar 30 $1 −$1 -67%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 30 $473 +$82 +17%
Will Trump say "Aliens are Real" in March? Mar 30 $4 −$3 -87%
Will Trump say "Little Rocket Man" in March? Mar 30 $1 −$1 -87%
Will Trump say "N Word" in March? Mar 30 $5 −$2 -33%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Mar 30 $6 $0 -7%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? Mar 30 $2 −$1 -54%
Will Solana reach $100 in March? Mar 30 $5 −$4 -86%
Will XRP reach $2.00 in March? Mar 30 $4 −$4 -97%
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in March? Mar 30 $2 −$2 -75%
100m views on a MrBeast video in the first week by March 31? Mar 30 $10 −$8 -82%
Will Trump post "Nasty" on Truth Social this week? Mar 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $39 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $39 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down $90 42h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $27 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $19 4d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $101 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 4AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $38 4d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $38 4d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $43 4d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $43 4d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $54 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $57 6d
XRP Up or Down - May 26, 9AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $19 22d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $18 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $217 28d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $18 28d
XRP Up or Down - May 20, 2PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $265 28d
XRP Up or Down - May 20, 2PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $55 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $20 29d
Will Trump announce a Taiwan arms sales halt? SELL Yes $3 29d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Xi Jinping by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $17 29d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $48 29d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $48 29d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $47 29d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Xi Jinping by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $39 29d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $48 29d
Will Trump announce a Taiwan arms sales halt? BUY Yes $15 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $16 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.02 · official $37.02 (match) · 326 history records