Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:44:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8e4a…f43d sports 534 markets active 1h ago coverage 46d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 46d only
✗ bot/MM pace (60 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,090 (-9%) realized −$1,048 · open −$42
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate49%258W / 269L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day59.5pace
Fees−$99est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$57
7 days−$389
14 days+$26
30 days+$172
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% +$614
weather 43% −$717
crypto 6% −$36
other 5% −$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (60 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -35.1% -41.3% 28% 25% -28.7%
≤30d 149 -12.8% -21.1% 30% 28% -6.4%
≤90d 527 -7.5% -16.3% 49% 32% -10.9%
all 527 -7.5% -16.3% 49% 32% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover59.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.3% 32% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -24.3% 29% -19.4%
15% -31.6% 28% -27.2%
20% -38.3% 25% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$13 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized−$1,048
Unrealized−$42
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses258 / 269
Est. fees paid−$99
Open positions7
Markets (closed)527 / 534
History coverage46d ⚠
Avg bet$22
Trades / day59.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 527 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+15%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs 29¢ 10¢ $30 $11 −$19 (-64%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-22%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $7 −$2 (-25%)
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals San Diego Padres 25¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $51 +$77 +152%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$4 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$9 +84%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $128 −$128 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $56 +$19 +34%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $72 −$72 -100%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 14 $61 +$95 +155%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 12? Jun 14 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $51 +$84 +165%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 +$81 +158%
Atlanta Dream vs. Chicago Sky Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $51 +$2 +4%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $41 −$41 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $31 −$31 -100%
Will England vs. Costa Rica end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $51 −$51 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 11 $51 −$51 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 11 $61 −$61 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $102 −$102 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $102 −$102 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 11 $51 −$51 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $51 +$166 +325%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $82 +$214 +262%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $102 +$115 +113%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $59 +$86 +145%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $46 +$60 +131%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $204 +$283 +139%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $127 +$45 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 8? Jun 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 09 $26 −$26 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $10 +$42 +414%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $20 +$31 +152%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $20 +$60 +291%
Indiana Fever vs. Washington Mystics Jun 09 $10 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 29¢ $31 1h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 25¢ $20 1h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 15¢ $21 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 39¢ $51 7h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 24h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 46¢ $15 24h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 24h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY Yes 5¢ $5 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $51 3d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 4d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 14¢ $31 4d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 28¢ $102 4d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 32¢ $41 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? BUY Yes 69¢ $102 4d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 4d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 4d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 4d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 12? BUY Yes 57¢ $44 4d
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever SELL Chicago Sky 3¢ $1 5d
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever BUY Chicago Sky 30¢ $10 5d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners 12¢ $15 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.77 · official $53.63 · 3500 history records