Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:46:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8e47…919d other 71 markets active 1h ago coverage 190d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$835 (-15%) realized −$685 · open −$150
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%20W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$656now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$691
7 days+$173
14 days−$50
30 days−$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$166
sports 9% −$440
crypto 7% −$155
politics 4% −$172
culture 0% −$11
world 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-42.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -31.5% -38.0% 35% 35% -4.4%
≤30d 26 -34.0% -40.3% 35% 35% -10.9%
≤90d 37 -39.0% -44.8% 30% 30% -22.7%
all 62 -36.2% -42.3% 32% 32% -24.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.3% 32% -24.3%
10% -47.8% 32% -31.5%
15% -52.8% 32% -38.1%
20% -57.5% 24% -44.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$77 vs −$56 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

190d coverage
Net worth$656
Realized−$685
Unrealized−$150
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses20 / 42
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions9
Markets (closed)62 / 71
History coverage190d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 20¢ $90 $136 +$46 (+51%)
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 34¢ 69¢ $50 $102 +$52 (+103%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 26¢ 23¢ $54 $48 −$6 (-12%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 18¢ $25 $40 +$15 (+60%)
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $115 $25 −$90 (-78%)
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $172 $7 −$165 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $10 −$5 -55%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $102 +$52 +51%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $480 +$391 +82%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $137 +$95 +69%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $12 −$11 -95%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $85 −$85 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $367 +$255 +69%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $127 −$127 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $102 −$6 -6%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $309 +$218 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 17 $27 −$2 -9%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $112 +$50 +45%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $344 +$166 +48%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $339 −$339 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $239 −$239 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $74 −$74 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $35 −$35 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $36 +$38 +104%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $50 +$21 +41%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 19 $165 −$133 -80%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $146 −$12 -8%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 14 $136 −$136 -100%
Will Southampton FC win on 2026-05-12? May 13 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-12? May 13 $51 +$84 +165%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? May 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $55 +$36 +65%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $97 −$97 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 29 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $152 −$152 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Mar 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 18 $10 +$19 +194%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-11? Mar 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Mar 02 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 The Genesis Invitational? Feb 24 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 The Genesis Invitational? Feb 24 $35 −$35 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-13.5) Feb 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-12? Feb 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Feb 12 $9 +$6 +67%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Feb 12 $15 +$19 +127%
Spread: Nuggets (-1.5) Jan 07 $45 −$45 -100%
Rockets vs. Nuggets Dec 21 $45 −$45 -100%
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2025-12-20? Dec 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $51 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $102 4h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $51 13h
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 13h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 97¢ $154 14h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 40¢ $138 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 60¢ $143 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 62¢ $96 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 23h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 24h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $102 31h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 34¢ $51 33h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $137 37h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $85 39h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $367 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $127 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 46¢ $96 3d
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $26 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $199 4d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $30 4d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $24 4d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $27 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 56¢ $51 4d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 4d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $110 4d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $655.89 · official $657.59 (match) · 298 history records