Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T04:53:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8E
0x8e45…b7ed
sports · 61 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$34 -14%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$37 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$52
Realized−$37
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses23 / 27
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions11
Markets (closed)50 / 61
History coverage22d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%
Chart Positions 11 History 50 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$21
14 days−$27
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Under 52¢ 52¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Tunisia (-2.5) Japan 99¢ 99¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Tunisia 89¢ 88¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.60 in June? No 44¢ 88¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+100%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Over 49¢ 48¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) Miami Marlins 29¢ 28¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-3%)
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Los Angeles Sparks 62¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+61%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 42¢ 46¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+8%)
ITF Wuning: Yujia Huang vs Zongyu Li Zongyu Li 75¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+33%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? No 96¢ 96¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Under 46¢ 52¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 57¢ 22¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-61%)
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Phoenix Mercury 62¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $4 −$1 -35%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $3 +$3 +97%
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-10.5) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-25.5) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 14 $3 +$3 +114%
Spread: Knicks (-12.5) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $7 +$4 +55%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 +$2 +152%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 +$3 +28%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $3 +$8 +255%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Panathinaikos Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Marin Cilic Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Sofia Kenin vs Elsa Jacquemot Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Emiliana Arango vs Anna Bondar Jun 13 $3 +$2 +51%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $5 −$2 -50%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette Jun 13 $3 +$1 +17%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 08 $3 +$2 +67%
Spread: Greece (-1.5) Jun 07 $3 +$1 +20%
Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus: O/U 5.5 Jun 07 $3 $0 +7%
Birmingham: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Prostejov: Sebastian Baez vs Alex Molcan Jun 07 $3 $0 +1%
Spread: Ōita Trinita (-1.5) Jun 07 $9 −$6 -66%
Ōita Trinita vs. Montedio Yamagata: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Montedio Yamagata win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $3 +$1 +32%
Will Ōita Trinita vs. Montedio Yamagata end in a draw? Jun 07 $6 −$1 -22%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $78 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $3 $0 +2%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $3 $0 +1%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $5 −$3 -64%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $6 $0 -7%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $3 $0 -10%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 02 $3 −$2 -70%
Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics: O/U 5.5 May 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5) May 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 May 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 10.5 May 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $12 +$4 +30%
Spread: Thunder (-4.5) May 27 $1 +$1 +105%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 26 $2 +$1 +67%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 26 $6 $0 -4%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) May 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) May 24 $2 +$1 +34%
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5 May 24 $2 +$2 +76%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-8.5) May 24 $2 +$2 +109%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $2 +$1 +55%
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-5.5) May 24 $2 +$2 +90%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 76% −$29
other 21% −$9
finance 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 42¢ $3 15m
ITF Wuning: Yujia Huang vs Zongyu Li BUY Zongyu Li 75¢ $2 57m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 41¢ $1 57m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 62¢ $3 57m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $2 1h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Los Angeles Sparks 62¢ $3 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 BUY Under 46¢ $1 1h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $2 2h
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) BUY Miami Marlins 29¢ $3 2h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Phoenix Mercury 62¢ $3 2h
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) BUY Miami Marlins 29¢ $3 2h
Spread: Spurs (-25.5) BUY Spurs 6¢ $3 4h
Spread: Knicks (-12.5) BUY Knicks 14¢ $3 4h
Spread: Knicks (-10.5) BUY Knicks 16¢ $3 4h
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Knicks 50¢ $3 4h
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) BUY Knicks 46¢ $3 4h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $1 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 64¢ $1 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 64¢ $1 5h
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) BUY Houston Astros 39¢ $3 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 64¢ $1 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 64¢ $1 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 64¢ $1 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 64¢ $1 5h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 5¢ $3 13h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 28¢ $3 13h
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Panathinaikos BUY Panathinaikos 15¢ $3 13h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $1 15h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $3 15h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $3 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -16.5% -24.4% 45% 38% -26.6%
≤30d 50 -13.3% -21.5% 46% 38% -27.4%
≤90d 50 -13.3% -21.5% 46% 38% -27.4%
all 50 -13.3% -21.5% 46% 38% -27.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.5% 38% -27.4%
10% -29.0% 34% -34.4%
15% -35.9% 26% -40.7%
20% -42.2% 26% -46.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.38 · official $52.38 (match) · 156 history records