Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:54:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8E
0x8e44…a6be
other · 94 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$26,908 -19%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$27,591 · open +$683
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,054
Realized−$27,591
Unrealized+$683
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses17 / 73
Whale WR (big bets)22%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)90 / 94
History coverage63d
Avg bet$1,516
Trades / day54.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%
Chart Positions 4 History 90 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$649
7 days+$943
14 days+$2,136
30 days+$2,209
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 7¢ 31¢ $173 $812 +$639 (+369%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Yes 32¢ 40¢ $107 $134 +$27 (+25%)
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $65 $72 +$7 (+11%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $25 $35 +$10 (+42%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 30? No 49¢ 0¢ $2,859 $0 −$2,859 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Yes 53¢ 0¢ $1,683 $0 −$1,683 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 28? No 47¢ 0¢ $1,350 $0 −$1,350 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Drake have exactly 8 songs in the Billboard top 10? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 7? Yes 65¢ 0¢ $2,173 $0 −$2,173 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 20? No 52¢ 0¢ $3,116 $0 −$3,116 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 14? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $233 $0 −$233 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 29? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $141 $0 −$141 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 5? Yes 49¢ 0¢ $347 $0 −$347 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 6? No 47¢ 0¢ $433 $0 −$433 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $1,410 +$649 +46%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 10 $35 −$10 -29%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $4,468 −$467 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $3,432 +$268 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $170 −$143 -84%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 08 $26 −$25 -95%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 08 $106 −$60 -56%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $3,125 +$2,254 +72%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $105 −$100 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $2,121 −$1,575 -74%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 06 $12 −$11 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $2,808 +$3,056 +109%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $149 −$80 -54%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $4,886 −$2,812 -58%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 05 $7 −$7 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 05 $16 −$15 -95%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 03 $125 −$22 -18%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $148 −$100 -67%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $469 +$71 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $2,090 +$482 +23%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 02 $1,674 +$103 +6%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $1,392 +$1,478 +106%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $1,325 −$876 -66%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $103 +$32 +31%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? May 31 $28 −$28 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 31 $164 −$90 -55%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 31 $205 −$47 -23%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? May 31 $8 −$7 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $52 −$16 -30%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $263 +$71 +27%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 29 $429 +$165 +38%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 29 $10 −$1 -13%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $1,043 +$843 +81%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $1,462 −$212 -14%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 29 $188 −$3 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $58 −$48 -83%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $283 −$121 -43%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 28 $41 −$14 -34%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $13 −$10 -82%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 28 $7 −$6 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $332 −$159 -48%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $594 +$594 +100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $203 −$126 -62%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $6 −$6 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $290 +$132 +46%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $188 −$139 -74%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $18 −$17 -95%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 24 $18 −$13 -71%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 24 $3 −$2 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 74% −$29,729
other 26% +$3,508
culture 0% −$644
tech 0% −$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 59¢ $35 34m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 59¢ $5 34m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 59¢ $142 35m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 59¢ $18 36m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 59¢ $18 36m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 59¢ $18 36m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 59¢ $18 36m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 59¢ $22 36m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 59¢ $14 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 59¢ $38 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 59¢ $71 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 59¢ $30 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 59¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 59¢ $15 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 59¢ $20 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 59¢ $118 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 59¢ $6 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 59¢ $18 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 59¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 52¢ $331 2h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 52¢ $3 2h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 52¢ $499 2h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 54¢ $71 2h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 55¢ $13 2h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 55¢ $9 2h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 55¢ $33 2h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 55¢ $100 2h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 55¢ $7 2h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 55¢ $5 2h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 55¢ $13 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-53.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -40.1% -45.8% 29% 21% +0.6%
≤30d 59 -46.0% -51.2% 25% 22% +0.8%
≤90d 90 -48.3% -53.3% 19% 16% -28.5%
all 90 -48.3% -53.3% 19% 16% -28.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover54.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -53.3% 16% -28.5%
10% -57.7% 14% -35.3%
15% ← realistic here -61.8% 9% -41.6%
20% -65.6% 6% -47.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,053.56 · official $1,053.56 (match) · 3500 history records