Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:40:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8e3a…f274 crypto 460 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 16d only
✗ bot/MM pace (180 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$198 (+2%) realized +$202 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate55%253W / 206L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day179.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$70
14 days−$102
30 days−$129
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$132
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (180 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 122 +9.0% -1.3% 57% 32% -12.8%
≤30d 459 +9.0% -1.4% 55% 33% -10.9%
≤90d 459 +9.0% -1.4% 55% 33% -10.9%
all 459 +9.0% -1.4% 55% 33% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover179.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.4% 33% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -10.8% 26% -19.4%
15% -19.4% 22% -27.2%
20% -27.3% 18% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$202
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses253 / 206
Open positions1
Markets (closed)459 / 460
History coverage17d ⚠
Avg bet$19
Trades / day179.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 459 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Down 62¢ 96¢ $6 $10 +$4 (+57%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Up 38¢ 4¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $29 −$4 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $32 −$7 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$5 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $18 −$3 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$10 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $22 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 10 $15 −$5 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 10 $48 −$8 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 10 $9 −$4 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 10 $15 −$5 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 10 $18 −$8 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 10 $15 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 10 $8 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 10 $30 −$10 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 10 $32 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 10 $22 −$7 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 10 $25 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 10 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 10 $12 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 10 $15 −$5 -32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $4 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.00 · official $10.00 (match) · 3500 history records