Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:20:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8e34…4480 sports 408 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 12d only
✗ bot/MM pace (250 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$19,024 (-22%) realized −$18,773 · open −$251
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate54%207W / 173L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$215per market
Trades / day250.2pace
Fees−$1,882est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$739now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,324
7 days−$2,874
14 days−$10,250
30 days−$10,250
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$10,474
other 0% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (250 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 225 +6.9% -3.3% 61% 39% -15.4%
≤30d 380 -1.6% -11.0% 54% 37% -20.3%
≤90d 380 -1.6% -11.0% 54% 37% -20.3%
all 380 -1.6% -11.0% 54% 37% -20.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover250.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.0% 37% -20.3%
10% ← realistic here -19.5% 26% -27.9%
15% -27.3% 23% -34.9%
20% -34.4% 19% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +3% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$112 vs −$193 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$739
Realized−$18,773
Unrealized−$251
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses207 / 173
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$1,882
Open positions29
Markets (closed)380 / 408
History coverage13d ⚠
Avg bet$215
Trades / day250.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 380 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map Handicap: LYON (-1.5) vs Chivas Esports (+1.5) Chivas Esports 38¢ 18¢ $304 $148 −$156 (-51%)
Map Handicap: UW (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) KRÜ Blaze 31¢ 20¢ $186 $123 −$63 (-34%)
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner TDK 44¢ 34¢ $92 $72 −$20 (-22%)
UFC Fight Night: Leon Shahbazyan vs. Levan Chokheli (Welterweight, Prelims) Levan Chokheli 69¢ 74¢ $66 $70 +$4 (+7%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 48¢ 64¢ $48 $64 +$16 (+33%)
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Prelims) Michael Aswell 72¢ 78¢ $41 $44 +$3 (+8%)
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner Yakult Brothers 40¢ 44¢ $40 $44 +$4 (+9%)
Set Handicap: Zidansek (-1.5) vs Friedsam (+1.5) Zidansek 38¢ 41¢ $38 $41 +$3 (+7%)
Map Handicap: NEM (-1.5) vs TDK (+1.5) Team Nemesis 28¢ 64¢ $16 $36 +$20 (+129%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 51¢ 53¢ $24 $25 +$1 (+4%)
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner EDward Gaming 30¢ 33¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+10%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs G2 24¢ 26¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+10%)
Game Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Noir Esports (+1.5) Noir Esports 36¢ 50¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+39%)
O/U 1.5 Rounds Over 56¢ 60¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+7%)
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) EDward Gaming 51¢ 52¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League Stage 4 Major Qualifiers Qualifier G2 Minnesota 57¢ 60¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Duty League Stage 4 Major Qualifiers Qualifier Paris Gentle Mates 68¢ 72¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs BESTIA - Map 1 Winner KRÜ Spark 44¢ 48¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Valorant: T1 Academy vs ARETE (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season ARETE 29¢ 34¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+16%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 39¢ 47¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+21%)
Rainbow Six Siege: For Fun Esports vs Outlast (BO1) - North America League Stage 1 Group Stage Outlast 28¢ 31¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+11%)
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner Yakult Brothers 40¢ 44¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 43¢ 48¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Valorant: Chivas Esports vs LYON (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Regular Season Chivas Esports 15¢ 15¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Game Handicap: TR (-1.5) vs Yakult Brothers (+1.5) Team Resilience 29¢ 32¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map Handicap: CC (-1.5) vs LPH Gaming (+1.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 17 $82 +$1 +1%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $57 +$5 +9%
Rainbow Six Siege: FaZe Clan vs Fluxo W7M (BO1) - South America League Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 17 $286 +$10 +4%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $45 −$45 -100%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? Jun 17 $70 −$30 -43%
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs Geekay Esports (BO1) - Europe MENA Le Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $216 −$13 -6%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 17 $588 −$33 -6%
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage Jun 17 $462 −$44 -10%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 17 $229 −$19 -8%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 17 $55 −$41 -73%
Game Handicap: SLY (-2.5) vs UCAM Esports Club (+2.5) Jun 17 $118 −$118 -100%
Game Handicap: GAL (-1.5) vs Eintracht Spandau (+1.5) Jun 17 $181 −$181 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: Falcons Esport vs G2 Esports (BO1) - Europe MENA Le Jun 17 $225 −$225 -100%
Map Handicap: M8 (-1.5) vs Nuclear TigeRES (+1.5) Jun 17 $170 −$143 -84%
Rainbow Six Siege: G2 Esports vs Shifters (BO1) - Europe MENA League S Jun 17 $181 −$180 -99%
Rainbow Six Siege: Rebels Gaming vs Twisted Minds (BO1) - Europe MENA Jun 17 $181 −$181 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 17 $1,004 −$1,004 -100%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 17 $137 −$72 -52%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $56 +$35 +63%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $44 +$5 +11%
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh Jun 17 $165 +$17 +10%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $35 +$4 +11%
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Shifters (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage Jun 16 $8 +$12 +150%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $68 +$1 +1%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $121 +$24 +20%
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs Twisted Minds (BO1) - Europe MENA Lea Jun 16 $360 +$396 +110%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 +$15 +76%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $57 +$177 +309%
Game Handicap: KT.C (-2.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+2.5) Jun 16 $3 +$6 +190%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $90 +$222 +246%
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 16 $401 +$17 +4%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $19 +$3 +17%
Valorant: University War vs KRÜ Blaze (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Jun 16 $17 −$1 -8%
Dota 2: G-Time vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 16 $45 +$5 +11%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $29 +$30 +104%
Game Handicap: VG (-1.5) vs Yakult Brothers (+1.5) Jun 16 $111 +$13 +12%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 16 $138 $0 +0%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $1 $0 +28%
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B Jun 16 $144 −$11 -7%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $25 +$3 +11%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $57 +$4 +8%
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma Jun 16 $10 +$1 +10%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 16 $9 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs BESTIA - Map 1 Winner BUY KRÜ Spark 44¢ $2 23m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $1 30m
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) BUY EDward Gaming 51¢ $2 40m
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) BUY EDward Gaming 51¢ $3 40m
Map Handicap: LYON (-1.5) vs Chivas Esports (+1.5) BUY Chivas Esports 38¢ $39 1h
Map Handicap: LYON (-1.5) vs Chivas Esports (+1.5) BUY Chivas Esports 38¢ $39 1h
Map Handicap: LYON (-1.5) vs Chivas Esports (+1.5) BUY Chivas Esports 38¢ $39 1h
Map Handicap: LYON (-1.5) vs Chivas Esports (+1.5) BUY Chivas Esports 38¢ $39 1h
Map Handicap: LYON (-1.5) vs Chivas Esports (+1.5) BUY Chivas Esports 38¢ $39 1h
Map Handicap: LYON (-1.5) vs Chivas Esports (+1.5) BUY Chivas Esports 38¢ $39 1h
Map Handicap: LYON (-1.5) vs Chivas Esports (+1.5) BUY Chivas Esports 38¢ $38 1h
Map Handicap: LYON (-1.5) vs Chivas Esports (+1.5) BUY Chivas Esports 38¢ $38 1h
Rainbow Six Siege: Team Orchid vs Weibo Gaming (BO1) - Asia Pacific Le BUY Team Orchid 19¢ $12 1h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 40¢ $30 1h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 40¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 40¢ $10 1h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 40¢ $0 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $48 2h
Map Handicap: NEM (-1.5) vs TDK (+1.5) BUY Team Nemesis 28¢ $2 2h
Rainbow Six Siege: Fury vs HL tauri Esports (BO1) - Asia Pacific Leagu BUY HL tauri Esports 19¢ $9 2h
Rainbow Six Siege: Fury vs HL tauri Esports (BO1) - Asia Pacific Leagu BUY HL tauri Esports 19¢ $4 2h
Valorant: Chivas Esports vs LYON (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Regu BUY Chivas Esports 15¢ $0 2h
Rainbow Six Siege: For Fun Esports vs Outlast (BO1) - North America Le BUY Outlast 28¢ $1 3h
Game Handicap: TR (-1.5) vs Yakult Brothers (+1.5) BUY Team Resilience 29¢ $0 3h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $24 3h
UFC Fight Night: Leon Shahbazyan vs. Levan Chokheli (Welterweight, Pre SELL Levan Chokheli 74¢ $1 4h
Map Handicap: NEM (-1.5) vs TDK (+1.5) BUY Team Nemesis 28¢ $8 4h
Map Handicap: NEM (-1.5) vs TDK (+1.5) BUY Team Nemesis 28¢ $1 4h
Map Handicap: NEM (-1.5) vs TDK (+1.5) BUY Team Nemesis 28¢ $2 4h
Map Handicap: NEM (-1.5) vs TDK (+1.5) BUY Team Nemesis 28¢ $1 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $738.54 · official $738.45 (match) · 3500 history records