Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:38:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8e31…50f4 crypto 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$180 (-51%) realized −$114 · open −$66
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -47% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% −$114
other 29% −$66
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-51.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -46.7% -51.8% 40% 40% -51.2%
≤30d 5 -46.7% -51.8% 40% 40% -51.2%
≤90d 5 -46.7% -51.8% 40% 40% -51.2%
all 5 -46.7% -51.8% 40% 40% -51.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -51.8% 40% -51.2%
10% -56.4% 40% -55.9%
15% -60.6% 20% -60.2%
20% -64.5% 0% -64.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -46% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -47% · $-wt -46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$49 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$114
Unrealized−$66
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Deniz Undav: 2+ goals Yes 12¢ 4¢ $100 $34 −$66 (-66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 29 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 29 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 29 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 29 $76 +$22 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 29 $25 +$9 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $27 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $25 1h
Deniz Undav: 2+ goals BUY Yes 12¢ $103 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.49 · official $34.49 (match) · 17 history records