Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T00:58:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8E
0x8e2c…018b
weather · 1091 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$14 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$19 · open −$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,164
Realized+$19
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses1053 / 13
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions27
Markets (closed)1066 / 1091
History coverage42d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day82.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 27 History 1066 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$42
7 days+$16
14 days+$4
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 14? No 98¢ 99¢ $46 $46 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $46 $46 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $46 $46 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 14? No 96¢ 97¢ $45 $46 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 15? No 98¢ 99¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 15? No 97¢ 98¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C or higher on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 15? No 97¢ 97¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 14? No 99¢ 98¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 15? No 98¢ 98¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? No 99¢ 97¢ $46 $45 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 14? No 98¢ 98¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 14? No 97¢ 94¢ $46 $44 −$1 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 14? No 99¢ 98¢ $45 $44 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 14? No 99¢ 98¢ $45 $44 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 15? No 99¢ 90¢ $46 $42 −$4 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on May 2? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 71°F or below on April 28? Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on June 14? Jun 13 $45 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 86°F or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $35 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 13 $35 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 14? Jun 13 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 13? Jun 13 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 14? Jun 13 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 13 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 88°F or higher on Jun Jun 13 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 14? Jun 13 $45 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $46 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 80°F or higher on June Jun 13 $46 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $45 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $45 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $45 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $4 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $45 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $43 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $33 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 12? Jun 13 $45 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on June 13? Jun 12 $46 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 12 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 86°F or higher on Jun Jun 12 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 18°C on June 13? Jun 12 $23 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 12 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? Jun 12 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 13? Jun 12 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? Jun 12 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C or below on June 13? Jun 12 $90 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 81°F or below on June Jun 12 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 100°F or higher on June 13? Jun 12 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 12? Jun 12 $45 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 12 $12 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on June 12? Jun 12 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $45 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on June Jun 12 $29 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C or below on June 13? Jun 12 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $45 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$68
other 0% +$16
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $24 50m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $45 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $21 2h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $47 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $4 5h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 86°F or higher on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $36 5h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $35 5h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $35 6h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $4 6h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $43 7h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $6 7h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $46 7h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $45 8h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $45 8h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $43 8h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $14 8h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $46 8h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $46 8h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $41 8h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $31 8h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $20 9h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $45 9h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $6 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 166 -0.0% -9.5% 99% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 686 -0.3% -9.8% 99% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 1066 -0.0% -9.5% 99% 0% -9.5%
all 1066 -0.0% -9.5% 99% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover82.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 0% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.2% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,163.96 · official $1,163.92 (match) · 3500 history records