Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:41:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8e2b…2619 sports 15 markets active 9d ago coverage 94d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$32 (-17%) realized −$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -49% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 94d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$50
other 21% +$32
crypto 8% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-53.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 -28.2% -35.0% 40% 40% -27.2%
≤90d 5 -28.2% -35.0% 40% 40% -27.2%
all 7 -48.7% -53.6% 29% 29% -37.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -53.6% 29% -37.5%
10% -58.0% 29% -43.5%
15% -62.1% 29% -48.9%
20% -65.8% 14% -53.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -49% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$13 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 15
History coverage94d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$7 +36%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$25 +124%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Mar 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Mar 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 18 history records