Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:53:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
8E 0x8e2b…97b2 sports 157 markets active 0h ago coverage 392d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$6,674 (+9%) realized +$6,877 · open −$203
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate51%79W / 75L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$470per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$296est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$910now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$169
7 days+$1,680
14 days−$780
30 days−$735
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 42% −$1,240
crypto 23% −$392
other 22% +$1,248
finance 4% +$1,281
politics 4% +$4,924
economics 4% +$579
world 1% +$308
tech 1% −$255
culture 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -7.1% -16.0% 64% 45% -1.0%
≤30d 60 -32.4% -38.8% 42% 32% -12.6%
≤90d 68 -24.3% -31.5% 49% 35% -11.3%
all 154 -8.0% -16.8% 51% 40% -1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 40% -1.2%
10% -24.8% 31% -10.7%
15% -32.0% 27% -19.3%
20% -38.7% 22% -27.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$250 vs −$175 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

392d coverage
Net worth$910
Realized+$6,877
Unrealized−$203
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses79 / 75
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$296
Open positions3
Markets (closed)154 / 157
History coverage392d
Avg bet$470
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 154 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 86¢ 78¢ $1,000 $905 −$95 (-10%)
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80? Yes 10¢ $12 $5 −$7 (-61%)
Exact Score: Japan 0 - 0 Sweden? Yes 18¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $1,759 +$99 +6%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $1,496 +$7 +0%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $251 +$24 +10%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $601 +$182 +30%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $101 +$40 +39%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $703 +$102 +14%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $102 −$100 -98%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $102 −$65 -64%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $101 +$80 +79%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $102 −$100 -98%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 24 $511 +$3 +1%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $105 −$2 -2%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $2,549 −$49 -2%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $718 +$418 +58%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $254 +$147 +58%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $1,010 +$319 +32%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $101 −$100 -99%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $101 +$53 +52%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $203 −$58 -28%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,706 +$227 +13%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $208 +$22 +11%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $110 −$71 -65%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $423 +$152 +36%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $1,904 +$1,026 +54%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $253 +$185 +73%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $750 −$731 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $478 +$62 +13%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $201 +$19 +10%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $251 −$250 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $503 +$130 +26%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $150 +$14 +10%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $263 +$130 +50%
UFC 327: Kevin Holland vs. Randy Brown (Welterweight, Prelims) Jun 18 $53 −$48 -91%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
UFC 328: Pat Sabatini vs. William Gomis (Featherweight, Early Prelims) Jun 18 $41 −$41 -100%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 18 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
UFC 328: Jim Miller vs. Jared Gordon (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 18 $141 −$141 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Rizvan Kuniev vs. Jailton Almeida (Heavyweight, Main Jun 18 $174 −$174 -100%
UFC 327: Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 18 $238 −$238 -100%
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Jun 18 $250 −$250 -100%
UFC 325: Fiziev vs. Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) Jun 18 $248 −$248 -100%
UFC 327: Patricio Pitbull vs. Aaron Pico (Featherweight, Prelims) Jun 18 $183 −$182 -99%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $240 end of March? Jun 18 $105 −$105 -100%
UFC 325: Brundage vs. Rowston (Middleweight, Prelims) Jun 18 $247 −$247 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 86¢ $1,004 0m
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 65¢ $780 46m
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 60¢ $711 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 50¢ $1,218 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 52¢ $366 1h
Exact Score: Japan 0 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $446 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $80 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $102 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $100 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $25 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $4 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $10 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $50 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $10 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 2h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $68 2h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $222 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $14 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $30 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $50 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $143 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $909.66 · official $909.66 (match) · 749 history records