Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:09:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
8E 0x8e28…f043 sports 169 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$130 (+2%) realized +$103 · open +$27
Gross ROI / mkt +40% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip
Net edge+17%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%75W / 81L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day10.7pace
Fees−$61est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$130now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$72
7 days+$189
14 days+$64
30 days+$121
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$126
other 18% +$174
world 2% +$151
crypto 1% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+26.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 +13.1% +2.4% 47% 47% -1.2%
≤30d 156 +40.3% +26.9% 48% 48% -7.7%
≤90d 156 +40.3% +26.9% 48% 48% -7.7%
all 156 +40.3% +26.9% 48% 48% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +26.9% 48% -7.7%
10% +14.8% 47% -16.5%
15% +3.7% 47% -24.6%
20% -6.5% 44% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +40% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +69% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$29 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$130
Realized+$103
Unrealized+$27
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses75 / 81
Est. fees paid−$61
Open positions3
Markets (closed)156 / 169
History coverage19d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day10.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 156 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $68 $69 +$1 (+1%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 100¢ $25 $49 +$24 (+96%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 29¢ 34¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 79 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $60 +$39 +65%
Will Scott McTominay score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $19 +$3 +14%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $30 +$36 +118%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $20 +$46 +226%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $81 +$50 +62%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $24 −$24 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $25 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $20 +$30 +145%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $19 −$19 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $36 −$35 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $21 +$74 +344%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 19 $30 −$30 -98%
Son Heungmin: 1+ goals Jun 19 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals Jun 19 $9 −$9 -98%
Jonathan David: 1+ goals Jun 19 $11 +$12 +109%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $32 +$25 +76%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $45 −$44 -99%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 18 $30 +$24 +79%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $30 +$28 +93%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $19 +$18 +93%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 +$27 +134%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $10 $0 -1%
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals Jun 18 $19 −$19 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 18 $10 +$10 +97%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $35 −$34 -98%
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 18 $9 +$14 +152%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $20 +$24 +119%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $42 +$56 +134%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $30 +$31 +101%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $31 +$33 +105%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $19 −$19 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $35 −$34 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $18 +$26 +140%
Harry Kane: 1+ assists Jun 17 $9 −$9 -98%
Yoane Wissa: 1+ goals Jun 17 $5 +$26 +505%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $29 −$29 -99%
Marcus Rashford: 1+ shots Jun 17 $10 +$18 +172%
Luka Vušković: 1+ shots Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $35 −$35 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 +$32 +105%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $27 −$27 -98%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 17 $22 +$44 +197%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $25 1h
Will Scott McTominay score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 49¢ $22 2h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $67 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $67 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $24 4h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $25 4h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $50 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $60 5h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $19 7h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $36 7h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 100¢ $95 7h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 40¢ $20 7h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 22¢ $21 8h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $81 8h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $69 8h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $30 25h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 30¢ $20 25h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Spirit 46¢ $30 25h
Son Heungmin: 1+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $9 25h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $20 25h
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals BUY Yes 39¢ $10 25h
Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $9 25h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Wi BUY $10 25h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $31 28h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $45 28h
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 SELL Under 100¢ $54 28h
Jonathan David: 1+ goals BUY Yes 47¢ $11 28h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 56¢ $32 28h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $48 30h
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 55¢ $30 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $130.50 · official $139.71 · 255 history records