Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:05:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8E
0x8e26…7f2b
weather · 84 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$924 -17%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$804 · open −$120
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$215
Realized−$804
Unrealized−$120
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses32 / 42
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions10
Markets (closed)74 / 84
History coverage50d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 10 History 74 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$96
14 days+$96
30 days+$137
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 12? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? No 82¢ 86¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Yes 96¢ 100¢ $24 $25 +$1 (+4%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Yes 43¢ 40¢ $21 $20 −$1 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? Yes 62¢ 56¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? Yes 92¢ 0¢ $110 $0 −$110 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Valorant: Team Envy vs MIBR (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha MIBR 63¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode? No 28¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 10? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Valorant: Team Liquid vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs Team Liquid 86¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 10? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO5) - VCT China Playoffs XLG Gaming 20¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $36 $0 −$36 (-100%)
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 11? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI T1 52¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 9? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Valorant: DRX vs Nongshim RedForce (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs Nongshim RedForce 63¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22? No 52¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 13? Jun 12 $101 −$4 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 12 $70 +$10 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11? Jun 12 $60 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 11? Jun 12 $14 +$3 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 12 $36 +$5 +14%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $5 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 11? Jun 12 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$13 +258%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 10? Jun 11 $10 +$2 +16%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 11? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 09 $15 −$15 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $17 +$4 +26%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 8? Jun 09 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 9? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 9? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 8? Jun 08 $5 +$38 +734%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 8? Jun 08 $5 −$4 -82%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $10 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 07 $284 +$71 +25%
Will Trump Mobile release a phone by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $10 −$8 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 6? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 6? Jun 06 $5 +$40 +770%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 1? Jun 02 $10 +$14 +137%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $51 +$46 +91%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $61 −$60 -98%
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North Ameri May 25 $25 +$41 +162%
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy bo May 22 $2 −$2 -96%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode? May 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22? May 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs May 15 $25 +$22 +86%
Valorant: Fnatic vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs May 10 $25 +$16 +64%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO5) - VCT China Playoffs May 10 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET May 10 $11 −$6 -61%
Valorant: Team Envy vs MIBR (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha May 09 $101 −$100 -99%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs Cloud9 (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alph May 09 $51 −$46 -90%
Valorant: Team Liquid vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs May 09 $301 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 09 $53 −$47 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 09 $52 +$44 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 09 $27 −$27 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (BO5) - VCT China Playoff May 09 $51 +$25 +50%
Valorant: Rex Regum Qeon vs DetonatioN FocusMe (BO3) - VCT Pacific Pla May 09 $51 +$29 +57%
Valorant: DRX vs Nongshim RedForce (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs May 09 $51 −$50 -99%
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Gr May 09 $101 −$101 -100%
Valorant: KRÜ Esports vs Evil Geniuses (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Gr May 09 $111 +$26 +23%
Valorant: Fnatic vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs May 08 $356 −$148 -42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 67% −$485
weather 18% +$18
crypto 11% −$347
other 3% −$80
tech 0% −$22
politics 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 12? BUY Yes 72¢ $30 1h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 12? BUY Yes 72¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? BUY Yes 96¢ $24 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? BUY Yes 92¢ $110 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 13? SELL No 81¢ $97 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 83¢ $101 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 43¢ $22 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 82¢ $25 2h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 11? BUY Yes 81¢ $14 22h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 11? BUY Yes 87¢ $36 22h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes 87¢ $70 22h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 11? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 22h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11? BUY Yes 98¢ $60 22h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju BUY Yes 85¢ $5 22h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 22h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 41h
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 11? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 42h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 47h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 44¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 10? BUY Yes 86¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 10? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 10? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 2d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 52¢ $15 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 9? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 9? BUY Yes 78¢ $17 3d
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 9? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +27.0% +14.9% 48% 37% +2.4%
≤30d 35 +23.0% +11.3% 49% 40% +3.9%
≤90d 74 -8.7% -17.4% 43% 31% -24.1%
all 74 -8.7% -17.4% 43% 31% -24.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 31% -24.1%
10% -25.3% 23% -31.4%
15% -32.5% 19% -38.0%
20% -39.1% 18% -44.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $215.26 · official $215.26 (match) · 188 history records